Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-02-01 05:46Investment Rating - The report rates the railway and highway industry as "Overweight" [2][4]. Core Insights - The freight volume in China is projected to reach 58.7 billion tons in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%. The growth rates for railway, highway, waterway, and civil aviation freight volumes are expected to be 2%, 3.4%, 3.2%, and 13.3% respectively [4]. - Fixed asset investment in transportation is expected to remain high, with an estimated completion of over 3.6 trillion yuan in 2025. The inter-regional personnel flow is projected to reach 66.86 billion person-times, growing by 3.5% year-on-year [4]. - Railway passenger and freight volumes are expected to maintain steady growth, with passenger volume reaching 4.601 billion people and freight volume reaching 5.277 billion tons in 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 6.7% and 2% respectively [4]. - The highway sector is anticipated to improve in 2026 after a slowdown in growth in 2025, with freight volume growth of 3.4% in 2025 [4]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on high dividend stocks and potential market value management catalysts in the highway sector, with specific companies such as Anhui Expressway, Shandong Expressway, and Zhejiang Expressway being highlighted [4]. Summary by Sections Railway Transportation - In 2025, the total passenger turnover is expected to reach 1,639.556 billion person-kilometers, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8%. The total freight turnover is projected to be 3,686.909 billion ton-kilometers, growing by 2.8% [4]. - The investment in railway fixed assets is expected to reach 901.5 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 6% [4]. Highway Transportation - The growth rate of highway freight volume is expected to slow down in 2025 but is projected to improve in 2026 due to stable demand in highway logistics [4]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests that the highway sector has two main investment themes for the year: traditional high dividend investments and potential market value management catalysts. Recommended companies include Wanhua Expressway, Shandong Expressway, and others [4].