BZ、EB周报：短期EB高位震荡-20260201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term EB will fluctuate at a high level. The market is in a high - production and high - inventory pattern. The downstream profit of styrene is continuously squeezed, and the absolute price enters an oscillation pattern. Pay attention to the restart of parking devices [3][67] - According to the crude oil valuation of $60, the reasonable valuation range of the BZ2603 contract is 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton [3][67] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - Pure benzene domestic production: In December, 110,000 tons were under maintenance, and in January, the maintenance remained at 110,000 tons (assuming a reduction of 45,000 tons due to the maintenance of Zhejiang Petrochemical). Some Shandong refineries will increase their load after solving the quota problem. In January, focus on the incremental pure benzene from the new production of BASF Zhanjiang [3][67] - Pure benzene imports: Although the overseas inventory pressure is still high, the overall import volume is reduced. The average monthly import volume of pure benzene from January to March 2026 is about 430,000 tons. The US - South Korea tariff remains, and the US - Asia aromatics logistics may continue after the Spring Festival, affecting about 30,000 - 40,000 tons of pure benzene per month [3][67] - Styrene: 85,000 tons were under maintenance in December and 65,000 tons in January. After December, the device operation gradually recovers. Focus on the incremental production from the operation of Shandong Guoen Chemical's device [3][67] - Caprolactam: CPL negative feedback starts, and factories gradually reduce their loads. 40,000 tons are expected to be under maintenance in December and 60,000 tons in January. Focus on the commissioning of Hengyi Qinzhou project in December and the expansion of Shaanxi Yangmei in January [3][67] Demand - Phenol: The operation gradually recovers. 30,000 tons were under maintenance in December and 10,000 tons in January. The commissioning of Shandong Ruilin's new device may be postponed [3][67] - Aniline: 70,000 tons were under maintenance in December, with a maintenance loss of 77,000 tons. Some devices extended their maintenance plans, and the operation in January may be lower than expected [3][67] - The demand for the 3S downstream of styrene exceeded expectations. After the market rose rapidly last week, downstream factories entered the restocking cycle. Currently, home appliance factories are preparing for the post - Spring Festival boom, stimulating the restocking process of the industrial chain [3][67] Strategy - Unilateral: Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting BZ on rallies [3][67] - Cross - variety: Pay attention to the opportunity of bottom - fishing for px - bz [3][67]