工业硅：上游减产发酵，震荡偏强，多晶硅：关注现货实际成交情况

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon has inventory destocking, and attention should be paid to the implementation of upstream production cuts. The fundamentals show a situation of weak supply and demand, with a greater reduction in supply than in demand, and the monthly balance turns to destocking. It is recommended to look for buying points at low levels, and the expected trading range next week is 8,500 - 9,300 yuan/ton [8][9]. - Polysilicon shows a pattern of weak supply and strong demand. Although it is in a high - inventory state, the bottom of the futures price is supported. It is not recommended to participate in futures, and options can be considered. The expected trading range next week is 47,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [9]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - The reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses for industrial silicon from January 12 - 30, 2026 remained stable. For example, the reference price of Si5530 in East China was 9,250 yuan/ton during this period [12]. 2. Supply Side of Industrial Silicon - Smelting and Raw Material Ends - Supply: Upstream may significantly cut production. Xinjiang's production decreased this week due to some factories' large - scale furnace shutdowns. Southwest China has entered the dry season, with high production costs and very low operating rates. The estimated cost of the dry season in Southwest China is 10,000 - 10,500 yuan/ton (converted to the futures price) [3]. - Inventory: SMM statistics show that the social inventory increased by 0.2 tons, the factory inventory increased by 0.41 tons, and the overall industry inventory decreased by 0.6 tons this week. Future attention should be paid to the registration of futures warehouse receipts [3]. 3. Consumption Side of Industrial Silicon - Downstream Polysilicon - Supply: In January 2026, polysilicon manufacturers passively cut production due to inventory pressure. The weekly output decreased, and the inventory increased. The current factory inventory is around 330,000 tons, and the overall industry inventory is about 500,000 tons, close to 5 months of consumption. The average full - cost is estimated to be in the range of 45,000 - 46,000 yuan/ton [5]. - Demand: The silicon wafer production schedule increased week - on - week in January. However, due to the increase in costs such as silver prices, the battery and component sectors cannot further increase production, resulting in inventory accumulation pressure on the silicon wafer side, and there may be a downward trend in the future [7]. 4. Consumption Side of Industrial Silicon - Downstream Organic Silicon - Supply: The weekly production of organic silicon decreased this week, and there are plans for further production cuts in the future to support prices. - Demand: It is currently the off - season for demand, and the inventory of organic silicon is at a medium level. The cancellation of export tax rebates on April 1 may lead to pre - emptive export behavior, bringing some consumption increments. Attention should be paid to the price transmission situation [4]. 5. Consumption Side of Industrial Silicon - Downstream Aluminum Alloys - Aluminum alloy ingot manufacturers have a reasonable inventory of industrial silicon. They have a high enthusiasm for purchasing at low prices and a strong wait - and - see attitude at other times. The overseas demand in the export market has not improved [4].