棕榈油：宏观情绪退潮，前高压力调整，豆油：美豆题材不足，高位震荡为主

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the upward rhythm of palm oil needs the realization of production - side drivers, and there is a risk of short - term decline when it reaches 9,400. In the long - term, the direction is not clear, and short - term operations are recommended. For soybean oil, it is mainly in high - level shock adjustment, following palm oil and crude oil [2][4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Last Week's Views and Logic - Palm Oil: After the MPOB report at the beginning of the month fulfilled the negative news, there were few new negative factors in the fundamentals. Driven by energy and pre - holiday topic speculation, the 05 contract rose 3.63% last week, but faced resistance at the previous high [1]. - Soybean Oil: Lacking South American weather speculation, the upward drive of US soybeans was limited. It mainly followed the upward trend of the oil and fat sector, and the 05 contract rose 2.35% last week [1]. This Week's Views and Logic Palm Oil - Positive Factors: After nearly two months of bottom - building, palm oil has a short - term smooth upward window. Factors include macro funds' attention to commodity cycle rotation, digestion of B50's pessimistic sentiment, good de - stocking process implied by high - frequency production and export data in Malaysia, strong expectation of Indonesia's tax increase, pre - Ramadan stocking, rising energy prices, and the approaching implementation of the US biodiesel policy [2]. - Negative Factors: Although the price increase with import profit in China implies no actual improvement in fundamentals, and China has almost completed February's procurement, domestic inventory will reach a high level. New trend - like negative news may appear if the production in January - February remains above 1.6 million and 1.5 million tons respectively. After Ramadan, there may be a rapid production increase period, and the low - priced South American soybean oil in April - May will impact palm oil demand [2]. - Trading Strategy: In the first quarter, the gene for going long on palm oil is strong before new negative news appears, but pay attention to the risk of decline due to previous high pressure and the ebb of pre - holiday macro sentiment. In the long - term, when the direction is unclear, short - term operations are mainly based on energy prices and news [2][4]. Soybean Oil - Policy Impact: The Trump administration is promoting the 2026 biofuel policy, which is expected to be finalized in early March. The volume requirement for D4 biodiesel is considered to be between 5.2 - 5.6 billion gallons, and the plan to punish the import of renewable fuels and their raw materials may be abandoned. This is positive for US soybean oil, with the expected annual industrial demand rising from 7 million tons to 8 - 9 million tons, and the price having the potential to reach 56 - 60 cents, but note that the EPA's message may change [5]. - Supply Situation: Brazilian soybeans are growing well, while the core production areas in Argentina are dry. China's customs may accelerate the release of soybeans in the first quarter, and the state - reserve soybean auction is progressing well, but the slow shipment from the US and Brazil may lead to a shortage of soybean arrivals in March - April, supporting the domestic soybean spot and month - spread to be strong in shock. However, the rapid inventory accumulation of domestic palm oil will suppress the upward space of the month - spread. Unilaterally, soybean oil is mainly in high - level shock adjustment following palm oil and crude oil [5]. Disk Basic Market Data - Price and Fluctuation: The main continuous contract of palm oil closed at 9,240 yuan/ton, up 3.63%; the main continuous contract of soybean oil closed at 8,282 yuan/ton, up 2.35%; the main continuous contract of rapeseed oil closed at 9,380 yuan/ton, up 4.47%. The main continuous contract of Malaysian palm oil closed at 4,229 ringgit/ton, up 1.32%, and the main continuous contract of CBOT soybean oil closed at 53.54 cents/pound, down 0.72% [8]. - Volume and Position: The trading volume and open interest of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil all changed to varying degrees [8]. - Spread and Warehouse Receipt: The spreads of different varieties and contracts showed different trends, and the number of warehouse receipts for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased [8]. Core Data of Oil and Fat Fundamentals - Production and Inventory: Malaysia's palm oil production in January - February is in line with market expectations, and the inventory is expected to decline. Indonesia's year - end inventory is expected to return to a neutral - to - wide level. The India - Malaysia price difference has rapidly narrowed recently [10][11][12]. - Export and Price Difference: The export volume of Malaysian palm oil products from January 1 - 25 increased by 9.97% compared with the same period last month. The POGO price difference is almost flat [12]. - Other Data: The prices of North Sumatra fruit bunches have stabilized and rebounded, and Indonesia's refining profit has declined from a high level. India's palm oil import profit has improved but is still lower than that of sunflower oil, and the India - Malaysia CNF price difference of soybean and palm oil has declined [12][13].