锌产业链周度报告-20260201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current real - world situation of zinc is not weak, and its price is relatively resistant to decline, with a neutral strength - weakness analysis [2]. - In the long - term, supply - side contradictions will continue to dominate zinc prices. The zinc ore expansion cycle is nearing its end, and the growth rate of global zinc ore production is declining. The most abundant phase of zinc ore is over, and a tight balance in zinc ore may become the norm. The TC operation center is expected to decline this year, and the zinc price operation center is expected to rise. In the short - term, zinc prices may be prone to rise and difficult to fall, and after a medium - term correction, there may be buying opportunities [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - Price and Volume: The closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract last week was 25,835, with a weekly increase of 5.08%; the closing price of LME Zinc 3 was 3,370, with a weekly increase of 3.09%. The night - session closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract was 25,775, with a night - session decline of 0.23% [6]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc main contract last Friday was 501,463, an increase of 328,176 from the previous week; the open interest was 105,539, a decrease of 14,636 from the previous week. The trading volume of LME Zinc 3 was 14,007, an increase of 4,544 from the previous week; the open interest was 233,157, an increase of 2,991 from the previous week [6]. - Inventory: SHFE Zinc warehouse receipts inventory decreased by 1,526 to 28,468; SHFE Zinc total inventory decreased by 7,997 to 65,154; social inventory decreased by 1,600 to 117,200; LME Zinc inventory decreased by 1,500 to 110,000; bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 3,300 [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Comparison - Inventory: Zinc ore and smelter finished - product inventories increased, while zinc ingot visible inventories remained stable [9]. - Profit: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industrial chain, while smelting profits are at a historical low. Mining enterprise profits are rising and at a historical high, smelting profits are falling and at a historical low, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are falling and at a medium - low level compared to the same period [11][12]. - Operating Rate: The smelting operating rate continued to decline, and the downstream operating rate is at a medium - low historical level. Zinc concentrate, refined zinc, galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide operating rates all declined [13][14]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - Spot: Spot premiums declined. Overseas premiums showed differentiation this week, with Singapore and Antwerp premiums remaining flat, and LME CASH - 3M rising [17][20]. - Spread: The C - structure of SHFE Zinc flattened [22]. - Inventory: There was a slight reduction in inventory this week, and the position - to - inventory ratio decreased. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, the total LME inventory is relatively stable, the CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory, and the cancellation warrant ratio has dropped significantly to a historical low. Bonded - area inventory remained unchanged this week, and the total global visible zinc inventory remained stable [25][30][32]. - Futures: The domestic long - position volume is at a medium - high level compared to the same period in history [33]. 3.4 Supply - Zinc Concentrate: Zinc concentrate imports rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production decreased, import ore processing fees decreased this week, and domestic ore processing fees remained stable. The arrival volume of zinc ore at ports was high, and smelter raw - material inventories increased [36][37]. - Refined Zinc: Smelting output declined and is at a medium level compared to the same period in history. Smelter finished - product inventories increased and are at a high level compared to the same period in history. Zinc alloy output is at a high level [44]. - Recycled Zinc Raw Materials: Information on the operating rate of 87 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills, prices of plating pipe slag, and other related data are presented [47][48]. 3.5 Demand - Refined Zinc Consumption: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [53]. - Downstream Operating Rate: The monthly downstream operating rate increased slightly, and most are at a medium - low level compared to the same period in history [57]. - Terminal Demand: The real - estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [68]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon emissions, and electricity are presented, as well as the profitability of zinc smelters in Spain, the UK, France, Italy, and Germany [70][71][73].