动力煤产业链周度报告-20260201

Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on the Thermal Coal Industry Chain - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, Ferrous Metals - Analyst: Fan Yuanyuan - Date: February 1, 2026 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Viewpoints - The thermal coal market is in a weak supply - demand balance, with prices fluctuating narrowly before the Spring Festival. The current price increase has limited sustainability and scope [2][3]. - In the long - term, the substitution of thermal power by new energy will continue. Coal demand in the power system will peak and decline during the 15th Five - Year Plan period. The supply side will shift from ensuring supply and increasing production to stabilizing production and prices. Coal prices will operate between 600 - 850 yuan/ton in the long run, and long - term contracts still have support [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price - Domestic prices: This week, domestic origin prices trended strongly. As of January 30, the 5800 kcal index in Yulin was 596.0 yuan/ton, up 7.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the 5500 kcal index in Ordos was 532.0 yuan/ton, up 6.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the 5500 kcal index in Datong was 568.0 yuan/ton, up 4.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. Port prices were stable with a slight upward trend, with the 5500 kcal price at Qinhuangdao Port at 696.0 yuan/ton, up 5.0 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 5000 kcal price at 614.0 yuan/ton, up 7.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. Import prices rose, with the CCI Import 4700 index at 72.5 dollars/ton, up 1.3 dollars/ton week - on - week, and the CCI Import 3800 index at 57 dollars/ton, up 1.8 dollars/ton week - on - week [9]. - Overseas prices: The overseas market showed a stable and slightly upward trend [10]. 3.2 Supply 3.2.1 Domestic Production (Weekly) - As the end of the year approaches, coal mines are gradually on holiday, and production has contracted. From January 22 - 28, the capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines in the Three - West region was 89.80%, a 0.49 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period. As of January 23, the capacity utilization rate of 462 sample mines was 88.3% (previous value 89.6%). In 2026, potential factors affecting coal production capacity include the exit of backward production capacity, the possible exit or conversion to reserve capacity of uncompleted approved increased production capacity, and the disposal of unfulfilled nuclear - increased production capacity for thermal coal contracts [17]. 3.2.2 Domestic Production (Monthly) - In December 2025, the national raw coal production was 43.703 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0% and a month - on - month increase of 2.40%. The daily average production in December was 14.10 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons from November and 56,000 tons from the same period last year. In 2025, the national cumulative raw coal production was 483.178 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. In terms of regions, Shanxi ranked first with a cumulative production of 130.4545 billion tons, accounting for 27% of the national total and a year - on - year increase of 2.1%; Inner Mongolia had a cumulative production of 128.6398 billion tons, accounting for 26.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 1%; Shaanxi had a cumulative production of 80.4617 billion tons, accounting for 16.65% and a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. The three provinces produced 339.556 billion tons of raw coal in 2025, accounting for 70.28% of the national total and a year - on - year increase of 4.9916 billion tons or 1.49% [23]. 3.2.3 Import (Weekly) - As of January 23, the weekly arrival volume of thermal coal at major ports was 7.63 million tons (previous value 8.43 million tons, year - on - year 7.42 million tons), showing a week - on - week decline [24]. 3.2.4 Import (Monthly) - In December 2025, the national coal import volume was 58.597 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.94% and a month - on - month increase of 33.01%. The high import volume was due to the "rush to export" by overseas suppliers affected by Indonesia's export tariff policy adjustment and the temporary tightening of domestic supply at the end of the year combined with the price advantage of imported coal. Since 2026, Indonesia's coal exports have remained sluggish with many policy interferences, such as slow approval of miners' work plans and budgets, a planned production quota of about 600 million tons in 2026 (significantly lower than 790 million tons in 2025), and the government still drafting coal export tariff regulations with an expected tax rate of 5 - 8% [31]. 3.3 Inventory 3.3.1 Mine - The origin inventory decreased week - on - week [33]. 3.3.2 Port - The middle and lower reaches maintained the rhythm of de - stocking. As of January 30, the total inventory of northern ports (excluding Huanghua) was 23.06 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.42 million tons. This week, the average daily port inflow was 1.0042 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20,600 tons, and the average daily outflow was 1.215 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 99,800 tons [3]. 3.4 Transportation - Port inflows decreased while outflows increased [41]. 3.5 Demand 3.5.1 Power Demand - Coastal power plants continued to maintain inventory. From January 31 - February 9, precipitation in some areas of China will vary, and temperatures in some regions will be higher or lower than normal. In 2025, the growth rate of全社会 electricity consumption was 5%. In 2025, thermal power generation decreased by 1% year - on - year. The precipitation in the southwest region was relatively low [48][50][52]. 3.5.2 Non - power Demand - The demand for building materials and metallurgy was weak, while the demand for chemical coal remained high. This week, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.32 percentage points to 79%, and the cement clinker capacity utilization rate increased by 2.77 percentage points to 45.19% [60].