铅产业链周度报告-20260201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral, with a price range of 16,700 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain volatile. On the supply side, the production of primary lead is under pressure, and the overall production of secondary lead is also facing challenges. On the consumption side, battery consumption is weak, and the inventory of finished batteries continues to accumulate. In terms of trading strategies, considering the weak supply - demand pattern, shorting volatility can be considered [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspect: Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, and Position - Price and Spread - The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 16,865 yuan/ton with a weekly decline of 1.35%, and the closing price of the overnight session yesterday was 16,940 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.44%. The price of LmeS - Lead 3 last week was 2,096.5 with a weekly increase of 3.02% [7] - LME lead basis was - 45.87, a decrease of 1.31 compared to the previous week; the premium of bonded lead remained unchanged at 95; the spot premium of Shanghai 1 lead increased by 20 to 45; the spread between secondary lead and primary lead increased by 75 to - 50 [7] - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract increased by 335 to 275; the cost of near - month to first - continuous inter - period arbitrage was 59.77 [7] - The spot import profit and loss of lead was - 658.93, a decrease of 76.80 compared to the previous week; the 3M import profit and loss of SHFE lead was - 623.95, a decrease of 127.41 compared to the previous week [7] - Inventory - SHFE lead warrant inventory increased by 1,452 to 29,418; SHFE total lead inventory increased by 1,233 to 30,584; social inventory increased by 1,600 to 36,100; LME lead inventory decreased by 9,600 to 205,575, and the proportion of cancelled warrants decreased by 4.00% to 9.06% [7] - Transaction and Position - The trading volume of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 122,859, an increase of 85,430 compared to the previous week, and the position was 56,480, a decrease of 8,714 compared to the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 was 10,642, an increase of 5,448 compared to the previous week, and the position was 142,000, an increase of 6,194 compared to the previous week [7] 3.2 Lead Supply: Lead Concentrate, Waste Battery, Primary Lead, and Secondary Lead - Lead Concentrate - The import volume, actual consumption, and domestic output of lead concentrate showed different trends in different years. The inventory of lead concentrate at Lianyungang also fluctuated over time [24] - The import TC and domestic TC of lead concentrate showed certain price ranges. The smelting profit of lead concentrate processing also changed over time [26][27] - The operating rate of lead concentrate showed different levels in different years [28] - Primary Lead and Secondary Lead - The production and weekly operating rate of primary lead and the combined production of primary and secondary lead, as well as the production and operating rate of secondary lead, all showed different trends in different years [30] - The by - product output of silver and the price of 1 silver, as well as the price of 98% sulfuric acid in East China, also had their own trends [32][33][34] - Waste Battery and Secondary Lead - The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost of secondary lead, and the profit and loss of secondary lead all changed over time [35][36][37] - Import and Export - The net import of refined lead, the monthly import volume of Chinese lead ingots, the import profit and loss of lead, and the export volume of lead ingots showed different trends in different years [39] 3.3 Lead Demand: Lead - Acid Battery and Terminal - Battery - The operating rate of lead - acid batteries, the monthly finished product inventory days of lead - acid battery enterprises and dealers, as well as the export volume of batteries, showed different trends in different years [43] - Consumption and Terminal - The actual consumption of lead, the monthly output of automobiles, and the monthly total output of motorcycles showed different trends in different years [45]