国泰君安期货：原木周度报告-20260201

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The log market is experiencing weak demand and low inventory, with prices oscillating within a range. Supply is at a normal level, but demand is entering the Spring Festival off - season, and inventory is about to enter the accumulation phase. Log supply follows the shipping schedule and is expected to remain normal. Weak real estate new construction continues to drag down log demand [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Trends - The demand is weak, and the inventory is at a low level, causing the price to fluctuate within a range. The supply remains normal, but demand enters the Spring Festival off - season, and the inventory is about to accumulate. Weak real estate new construction continues to suppress log demand [3]. 3.2 Spot Price Trends - For different tree species, specifications, and regions, the spot prices of logs show different trends. For example, the price of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/m³ (1.3%) compared to the previous week, and the price of 11.8 - meter spruce 20+ in Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan/m³ (-0.9%) [7]. 3.3 Supply: New Zealand Log Shipping Schedule Data - The report provides detailed information on log shipments, including load, departure time, unit, previous port, current port, expected destination port, and expected arrival date [20]. 3.4 Demand and Inventory: Domestic Main Port Inventory and Daily Average Shipment - The inventory at major domestic ports has generally decreased. For example, the total inventory at Lanshan Port decreased by 2.30 million m³ (-1.8%) compared to the previous week, and the total inventory at Xinminzhou decreased by 3.47 million m³ (-41.6%). The daily average shipment at some ports has also changed, with the total shipment at Lanshan Port decreasing by 0.21 million m³ (-13.0%) [24]. 3.5 Other Price Direct Influencing Factors - The dry - bulk BDI increased by 386 (21.9%) compared to the previous week, the handy - size BHSI increased by 18 (3.0%), the crude oil BDTI increased by 76 (4.7%), the SCFI comprehensive index decreased by 141 (-9.7%), the USD/CNY exchange rate decreased by 0.040 (-0.6%), and the USD/NZD exchange rate decreased by 0.081 (-4.7%) [26].