石油化工行业周报第438期（20260126—20260201）：地缘政治不确定性驱动油价上行，坚定看好石化板块景气度-20260201

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical sector [5] Core Views - Geopolitical tensions are driving oil prices upward, with expectations for 2026 oil prices to fluctuate between $60 and $80 per barrel [1] - The report highlights that the geopolitical risk premium for oil prices has increased due to escalating tensions in Iran, contributing to a rise in oil prices [1] - The report anticipates a positive outlook for oil demand, with the IEA projecting a growth of 930,000 barrels per day in global oil demand for 2026, surpassing the 850,000 barrels per day growth expected for 2025 [1] - The "three major oil companies" (China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and CNOOC) are expected to maintain high capital expenditures and strengthen their positions in the natural gas market, which will support long-term growth [2] - The report indicates that the petrochemical industry is transitioning from a simple "reduce oil, increase chemicals" approach to a focus on high-value transformation, which is expected to improve the industry's supply-demand dynamics [3] - The report suggests that the refining and chemical fiber sectors will benefit from a recovery in industry conditions, with a reduction in low-price competition due to policy changes [3] Summary by Sections Oil Industry Database - Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices as of January 30, 2026, were reported at $69.83 and $65.74 per barrel, reflecting increases of 6.7% and 7.3% respectively from the previous week [1] - The report notes that the marginal cost of U.S. shale oil is approximately $65 per barrel, which may lead to a reduction in supply [1] Supply and Demand - The report emphasizes that the supply side is expected to continue clearing, with improvements in the refining sector anticipated as capacity expansion nears its end [3] - The report also highlights that the demand for petrochemical products is expected to recover as macroeconomic conditions improve, benefiting leading companies in the sector [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the "three major oil companies" and their subsidiaries in oil services, as well as leading companies in the refining and chemical fiber sectors [4]