铁矿石周度报告-20260201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current situation and expectations of iron ore are in a state of game, and the price of iron ore is oscillating [3] - The resumption of production by steel mills combined with the end - of - year winter storage replenishment has led to a strong rigid demand for iron ore, and the trading window for the price suppression of high inventory has been postponed [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore Price Spreads - Last Friday, the spot price of PB powder was 790 (-10) yuan/ton, and the price of the 05 contract was 791.5 (-4) yuan/ton. The basis of the 05 contract was 32 (+1) yuan/ton, and the 05 - 09 spread was 19 (+1.5) yuan/ton [10] - In the table of Rizhao Port imported ore prices (wet - based tax - included) and iron concentrate powder market prices (dry - based tax - included), the prices of most imported ores decreased this week compared with last week, while the prices of Tangshan and Anshan special iron concentrates remained unchanged [12] 3.2 Iron Ore Supply - Supply remains at a high level, with the year - on - year difference significantly higher than that of last year. Both mainstream and non - mainstream ore supplies are at high levels. The supply of FMG has increased significantly, and the domestic ore production is stable [14][16][18] - When comparing the current week with last week and the same period last year, the global iron ore shipment was 2978.30 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. The Australian shipment was 1780.20 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.5% and a year - on - year increase of 44.2%. The Brazilian shipment was 544.80 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.1%. The 45 - port arrival volume was 2530.00 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.8% [4] - In terms of major mines, the shipment volume of Rio Tinto was 569 million tons (+10), BHP was 583 million tons (+143), FMG was 431 million tons (+63), and VALE was 377 million tons (-11) [18] 3.3 Iron Ore Demand - Profit has led steel mills to resume production at low levels, and the rigid demand for iron ore has rebounded. The end - of - year winter storage replenishment by steel mills has further increased the demand for iron ore. The winter storage replenishment has led to the port clearance being significantly higher than the rigid demand for molten iron. Steel mills prefer medium - grade powder ore, and scrap steel has a substitution effect [30][31][33] - The molten iron production was 227.98 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [4] 3.4 Iron Ore Inventory - The accelerated arrival of floating cargoes has led to an increase in supply and a rapid accumulation of inventory. The inventory of Australian ore has increased significantly [38][39] - The 45 - port inventory was 17022.26 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.5% and a year - on - year increase of 14.0% [4] 3.5 Iron Ore Cost - The rise in oil prices has led to an increase in freight rates, including BCI, BDI, West Australia - Qingdao, and Tubarao - Qingdao sea freight [42]