生猪：旺季需求不及预期，抛压将加速

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the spot and futures prices of live pigs showed a weak trend. The supply side had an increase in group enterprise sales, while some retail farmers were still reluctant to sell. The demand side faced losses in the downstream slaughtering industry during the peak season, with a slow increase in slaughter volume. Looking ahead to next week, the spot price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply pressure is likely to increase, and the demand during the peak season is not as expected, with the supply pressure likely to be postponed after the Spring Festival. The LH2603 futures contract may trade with a discount logic in advance, and investors should pay attention to setting stop - loss and take - profit levels [1][2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review (1.26 - 2.1) 3.1.1 Spot Market - The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 27.35 yuan/kg, the same as last week. The price of live pigs in Henan was 12.68 yuan/kg, down from 13.28 yuan/kg last week. The price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1559 yuan/head, unchanged from last week. The average national slaughter weight was 124.33KG, a 0.14% decrease from last week. The downstream slaughtering industry was in a loss during the peak season, and the slaughter volume increased slowly [1] 3.1.2 Futures Market - The highest price of the LH2603 live pig futures contract this week was 11530 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11150 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11220 yuan/ton, down from 11565 yuan/ton last week. The basis of the LH2603 contract was 1460 yuan/ton, down from 1715 yuan/ton last week [2] 3.2 Next Week's Market Outlook (2.2 - 2.8) 3.2.1 Spot Market - The live pig spot price will fluctuate weakly. In January, the planned slaughter decreased month - on - month, but due to low enterprise slaughter enthusiasm and negative feedback from the slaughtering industry, the demand was lower than expected, and there were signs of passive inventory accumulation. According to piglet data, the supply of standard pigs will continue to increase until April 2026. The Spring Festival is late, and the pre - holiday speculative demand was front - loaded in January, but the slaughter volume decreased during the peak season around January 20, and the negative feedback of downstream losses limited the increase in the peak - season demand. In February, the daily slaughter plan increased significantly, and the spot pressure is expected to increase [3] 3.2.2 Futures Market - The price of the LH2603 contract closed at 11220 yuan/ton on January 30. In January, the enterprise slaughter progress was slow, second - fattening entered the market, and inventory was accumulated during the peak season. The downstream losses during the peak season inhibited the increase in slaughter volume, and the demand after Laba was lower than expected, causing the spot price to fall rapidly. In February, the daily slaughter plan increased significantly, and the supply pressure is likely to be postponed after the Spring Festival. The standard pig warehouse - receipt price in Guangdong is basically at the same level as the March contract. Considering various factors, the industry has a strong willingness to hold and deliver, and the March contract may trade with a discount logic in advance. The short - term support level of the LH2603 contract is 10000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 11500 yuan/ton [4] 3.3 Other Data - The basis this week was 1460 yuan/ton, and the LH2603 - LH2605 monthly spread was - 430 yuan/ton [8] - The average weight this week was 124.33KG (last week was 124.5KG). In November, the pork production was 5.46 billion tons, a 2.6% decrease from the previous month; in December, the pork import was 5.36 million tons, a 7.23% decrease from the previous month [11]