黑色分析师：李亚飞投资咨询号：Z0021184日期：2026年02月01日

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw materials are strong while the steel products are weak, leading to the compression of steel - making profits [3] - The "Three Red Lines" constraint has been alleviated, and the real - estate market expectation has improved. The macro - environment is generally warm [5] - The black industry chain: Steel mills are replenishing stocks for winter storage, and there are still low - level buying orders for steel - making raw materials. The supply - demand pattern of steel is loose, but the cost provides support, and the price fluctuates widely. Currently, steel production and inventory are being reduced, creating conditions for subsequent positive feedback [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Market Data - Supply, Demand, and Inventory: The report provides supply, demand, inventory data, as well as spot and futures prices and spreads for various steel products such as iron water, scrap steel, rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, cold - rolled coil, and medium - thick plate on January 30, 2026, including week - on - week and year - on - year differences [4] 3.2 Rebar Fundamental Data - Basis and Spread: Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3250 (-20) yuan/ton, the 05 - contract price was 3128 (-14) yuan/ton, the 05 - contract basis was 122 (-6) yuan/ton, and the 05 - 10 spread was -49 (-3) yuan/ton. It shows a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with basis and spread reverse arbitrage [13][17] - Demand: New - home sales remain at a low level, indicating low market confidence. Second - hand home sales remain at a high level, reflecting the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area also remains at a low level. It is the traditional off - season, and demand has declined [18][21] - MS Weekly Data: Supply and demand are both weak, and inventory is healthy. It also shows the supply and inventory data of long - and short - process rebar [23][25] - Production Profit: Last week, the rebar spot profit was 129 (-32) yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 130 (-12) yuan/ton. Due to the expected resumption of production by steel mills and inventory replenishment, the disk profit has shrunk [28] 3.3 Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Data - Basis and Spread: Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3270 (-20) yuan/ton, the 05 - contract futures price was 3288 (-17) yuan/ton, the 05 - contract basis was -18 (-3) yuan/ton, and the 05 - 10 spread was -23 (-4) yuan/ton. It shows a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with basis and spread reverse arbitrage [32][36] - Demand: Demand is flat. It is the traditional off - season, and demand has declined. The profit window for exports has not opened, and export orders have decreased [37][38] - MS Weekly Data: Hot - rolled coil inventory is high, and production and inventory are being reduced. Production is maintained at a low level [43][44] - Production Profit: Last week, the hot - rolled coil spot profit was -13 (-31) yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 140 (-15) yuan/ton. Due to the expected resumption of production by steel mills and inventory replenishment, the disk profit has shrunk [46][49] 3.4 Variety Regional Differences - The report shows the regional price differences of rebar, cold - rolled coil, hot - rolled coil, and medium - thick plate, including the price differences between different regions such as Shanghai - Tianjin, Tianjin - Guangzhou, and Shanghai - Guangzhou [55] 3.5 Cold - Rolled and Medium - Thick Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - It provides the seasonal data of total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold - rolled coil and medium - thick plate from 2022 to 2026 [63][64]