碳酸锂：容量补偿政策落地叠加现货采买放量，锂价或企稳

Report Overview - Report Title: "Carbonate Lithium: Capacity Compensation Policy Implementation and Spot Purchasing Surge May Stabilize Lithium Prices" - Report Date: February 1, 2026 - Analysts: Shao Wanyi, Liu Hongru 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - This week, the carbonate lithium futures prices dropped significantly, but the core logic of strong reality and expectations remains unchanged. The supply side is expected to contract marginally as some lithium salt plants plan for phased maintenance, while the demand side shows the characteristic of "not being in the off - season" and remains at a high level. After the price correction, the downstream replenishment willingness has significantly increased. The capacity price policy announced on Friday gives the market a clearer expectation, which may increase the economic viability of independent energy storage systems and potentially raise the project IRR. However, the potential negative feedback risk of demand needs continuous tracking. Currently, the absolute level of lithium prices has fallen to a relatively low level, and the downstream replenishment willingness will support the market. Attention should be paid to the changes in market funds next week [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - This week, the carbonate lithium futures prices declined sharply. The 2605 contract closed at 148,200 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 33,320 yuan/ton, and the 2607 contract closed at 148,860 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 33,780 yuan/ton. The spot price decreased by 10,500 yuan/ton to 160,500 yuan/ton. The SMM spot - futures basis (2605 contract) strengthened by 7,700 yuan/ton to - 1,780 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader premium/discount quotation was - 1,350 yuan/ton, strengthening by 40 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 2605 - 2607 contract spread was - 660 yuan/ton, strengthening by 460 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [2]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals Supply - Domestic lithium salt plants are gradually entering the seasonal maintenance phase, and the overseas mining cost has increased significantly. Overseas Simga Lithium announced on January 26 that it has resumed mining operations, and it is expected to produce output around March according to the mining progress. The domestic weekly carbonate lithium production was 21,569 tons, a decrease of 648 tons from the previous week [3]. Demand - Short - term demand is relatively strong, and the power terminal is waiting for recovery. The actual production reduction of cathode material plants is limited, and the demand for export rush continues to be released, so the production is expected to remain at a high level. In 2025, the newly added installed capacity of new energy storage projects was 62.24GW/183GWh, a year - on - year increase of 47%/80%. On Friday evening, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Improving the Capacity Price Mechanism on the Power Generation Side". This week, the total winning bid scale of energy storage projects was 2.15GW/2.31GWh, a week - on - week decrease of 70.03% and a year - on - year decrease of 47.58%. According to information providers, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate batteries in February decreased by 9% month - on - month, and that of ternary batteries decreased by 15% month - on - month, with a smaller decline than the same period last year [3]. Inventory - This week, the carbonate lithium inventory continued to decline, with the industry inventory at 107,482 tons, a reduction of 1,414 tons from the previous week, and the inventory was transferred downstream. This week, 1,325 new futures warehouse receipts were registered, with a total of 30,211 lots [4]. 3.3 Market Strategy - Unilateral: High - level fluctuations are expected, and the price of the futures main contract is expected to range from 145,000 to 170,000 yuan/ton. - Inter - period: Referring to the downstream pre - holiday replenishment rhythm, take profit on long - short spreads at an appropriate time. - Hedging: Due to large price fluctuations, upstream and downstream enterprises are advised to hedge with options at an appropriate time [7].