镍：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面与投机盘博弈，不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，镍铁预期托底下方

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The core game between nickel and stainless steel lies in Indonesia's nickel policies. The market has different expectations for these policies, leading to a confrontation between secondary market funds and industrial funds on the trading floor [1]. - For nickel, the high inventory and the increase in supply elasticity after profit repair coexist with the divergence in market expectations for Indonesia's nickel policies. In the short - term quota policy vacuum period, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and the direction of price movement depends on the dynamics of Indonesia's quota policies [4][5]. - For stainless steel, it is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with inventory accumulation in the off - season putting pressure. The cost logic has raised the bottom space of the stainless - steel price range. In the short term, it is expected to move in a range, and the breakthrough in direction also depends on the dynamics of Indonesia's quota policies [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Indonesia Nickel Policy Events - Quota Event: Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry may adjust the nickel ore quota to 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons. If the target quota is implemented, it may lead to a shortage in the ore end, forcing the smelting end to cut production, and changing the surplus expectation to a shortage [1]. - Associated Mineral Event: Indonesia wants to include associated minerals such as cobalt in the pricing and taxation system. If cobalt is priced, the direct cost of pyrometallurgy and hydrometallurgy may increase by about 5% - 10% [2]. - Conflict Event: Many Indonesian enterprises are facing potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land. The IMIP park's port storage and logistics are reported to have monopoly behavior. These events may increase the smelting cost and cause concerns about resource supply [2]. - Other Events: In early 2026, Vale suspended its nickel - mining business, but later resumed normal operations after obtaining part of the mining quota approval. This may indicate that Indonesia may favor leading enterprises and hydrometallurgy projects [3]. 3.2 Market Quotes - Nickel: Overseas news is continuous, and there is a game between hedging and speculative funds. The high inventory and the increase in supply elasticity after profit repair coexist with the divergence in market expectations for Indonesia's nickel policies. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to consider options and pay attention to structural trading opportunities [4][5]. - Stainless Steel: Affected by the off - season and weak demand, stainless - steel production in February decreased to 2580000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3% and a month - on - month decrease of 23%. The cost logic has raised the bottom space of the price range, and in the short term, it is expected to move in a range [6]. 3.3 Inventory Tracking - Refined Nickel: On January 30, China's social inventory increased by 6622 tons to 69238 tons, with an increase of 10.58%. LME nickel inventory increased by 2556 tons to 286284 tons [7]. - New Energy: On January 30, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines increased by 0, 2, and 0 months - on - month to 5, 9, and 7 days respectively. The precursor inventory increased by 0.1 months - on - month to 13.1 days, and the ternary material inventory increased by 0.1 months - on - month to 7.0 days [7]. - Nickel - Iron - Stainless Steel: On January 29, the total inventory of SMM nickel - iron industry chain decreased by 10% months - on - month to 121000 metal tons. In December, the stainless - steel factory inventory was 1.48 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1% and a month - on - month decrease of 7%. On January 29, the stainless - steel social inventory was 952674 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.37% [7]. 3.4 Market News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform for projects producing "restricted products" [8]. - China's Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have implemented export license management for some steel products since January 1, 2026 [8]. - Indonesia plans to revise the benchmark price formula of nickel ore products and start treating cobalt as an independent commodity for royalty collection [8]. - Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [9]. - Some Indonesian mines are facing potential fines for illegal occupation of forest land and are negotiating with the government [9]. - Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry will adjust the nickel production quota according to industry demand, and the production may be around 250 - 260 million tons [9]. - The IMIP park in Indonesia is reported to have monopoly behavior in port storage and logistics and is negotiating with the relevant department [9]. - A Singapore - flagged bulk carrier carrying about 50000 tons of nickel ore sank on its way to Yangjiang, China [10]. - Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has started approving the 2026 mining work plan and budget [10]. - Solvay Investment Group plans to restart its nickel - mining business in Guatemala in a few months [10]. 3.5 Weekly Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and other indicators of nickel and stainless - steel futures, as well as prices and spreads of related products in the industrial chain, such as 1 imported nickel, high - nickel pig iron, and 304 stainless - steel coils [12].