出口退税显著扩大

Revenue Insights - In 2025, the national general public budget revenue decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 1.0%[5] - Government fund budget revenue fell by 7.0% year-on-year, with expenditure rising by 11.3%[5] - In December 2025, general public budget revenue dropped by 25.0% year-on-year, while expenditure decreased by 1.8%[7] Expenditure Trends - December general public budget expenditure saw a year-on-year decline of 1.8%, an improvement from the previous decline of 3.7%[27] - Expenditure in December increased by over 70% month-on-month, aligning with seasonal trends due to year-end budget execution[27] - Non-living-related expenditures, including infrastructure and cultural projects, contributed to the expenditure increase, while living-related expenditures lagged behind seasonal expectations[27] Tax Revenue Dynamics - Tax revenue in December showed a month-on-month increase of only 0.9%, significantly lower than the historical average increase of 23.9%[16] - Major tax categories, including domestic VAT and consumption tax, experienced negative growth, reflecting economic pressures[19] - The reliance on non-tax revenue increased, with its share in the general public budget revenue rising to approximately 26%[27] Future Outlook and Risks - Tax revenue is expected to have some expansion potential due to new industry drivers and improved export resilience[38] - Risks include potential underperformance of incremental policies and continued weakness in the real estate market, which could further strain local government finances[39]