黄金白银四问四答

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the precious metals market has seen significant fluctuations. The short - term rise is driven by the safe - haven property, dollar credit issues, and tight silver inventory. The sharp increase was due to short - squeezes and the option gamma squeeze effect. Currently, factors triggering adjustments include the nomination of Warsh as the Fed chair, high volatility, a significant decline in silver ETF holdings, and exchange intervention. In the long - term, the upward trend remains, and historical data shows an average 18 - day correction with an 8% decline, and a re - entry point may be when the implied volatility drops below 20% [5][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Short - term Logic for the Recent Rise - Safe - haven Property: Multiple geopolitical conflicts in 2026, such as the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro and potential US tariffs on Europe and strikes against Iran, have sharply increased risk - aversion sentiment. Additionally, the potential US government shutdown also boosts the precious metals market [10][15] - Dollar Credit Issues: Due to the unpredictability of the US government and growing US debt, European institutions like Swedish and Danish pension funds have reduced their holdings of US - related assets, and some funds may choose gold as a new underlying asset [16] - Silver - specific Logic: The industrial and investment demand for silver has led to a significant decline in physical silver inventory. Compared to September 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory has dropped by over 58%, and COMEX silver inventory has decreased by 21% [17] 2. Reasons for the Previous Sharp Increase - Short - squeeze: As of January 29, the virtual - to - physical ratio of the Shanghai silver main contract was 8.75, much higher than the historical average. In January, over 40 million ounces of silver on COMEX applied for delivery, and as the March delivery month approaches, the demand may exhaust the current inventory [20] - Option Gamma Squeeze Effect: Retail investors' large - scale purchase of call options forces market - makers to buy underlying assets in the futures market, creating a self - reinforcing cycle. When gold broke through $5000 per ounce, it accelerated its upward movement [21] 3. Factors Triggering the Current Adjustment - Direct Cause: The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair stabilizes the dollar's credit, weakening the "de - dollarization" narrative and suppressing gold prices [24] - Volatility Perspective: As of January 29, the implied volatility of gold exceeded 35%, and that of silver was 94%, both at historical highs, indicating an over - heated market [25] - Funds Perspective: The significant decline in silver ETF holdings since January 26, approaching previous lows, signals an adjustment in the silver market. Gold's overall holding growth has also slowed [27][29] - Exchange Intervention: The CME has raised the margin for silver and gold six times since December 2025, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange has also increased margins and issued risk warnings [30] 4. What to Do After the Adjustment - Medium - to - Long - term Perspective: The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains. International concerns about US debt sustainability and Fed independence drive central banks to increase gold reserves, and the Fed's current interest - rate cut cycle reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold [34] - Historical Reference: Since 2024, gold has had three peak - to - trough corrections, with an average correction time of about 18 days and a decline of about 8% [35] - Volatility Guidance: Historically, gold rallies have often started when implied volatility dropped to a low level. In the future, when the volatility drops below 20%, it may be a signal to go long [36]