2025年财政回顾与2026年展望：物价回升如何影响税收收入？

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In 2025, total fiscal revenue reached 21.6 trillion, completing 98.3% of the initial budget, while total expenditure was 28.74 trillion, completing 96.8% of the budget, marking the lowest completion rate on record[3] - December 2025 fiscal revenue was 1.55 trillion, down 25% year-on-year, with a significant drop of 24.9 percentage points from the previous month[4] - December fiscal expenditure was 3.89 trillion, down 1.8% year-on-year, continuing a negative growth trend for three consecutive months[11] Structural Insights - Central government expenditure grew by 5.7% year-on-year, significantly outpacing local government expenditure, which only grew by 0.2%[3] - The proportion of general fiscal expenditure directed towards people's livelihoods increased to 38%, up 1.3 percentage points from 2024, while infrastructure-related expenditure decreased to 19.5%, down 1.9 percentage points[3] Future Projections - For 2026, it is anticipated that fiscal expansion will remain at a level comparable to 2025, with a focus on "investing in people" and an early release of "national subsidies" to stimulate economic growth[6] - A projected 580 billion in carryover funds from 2025 is expected to supplement the 2026 fiscal budget[2] Tax Revenue Expectations - A rebound in prices, particularly a narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI), is expected to increase tax revenue by approximately 1.4 percentage points, translating to an additional 2.4 trillion in tax revenue[8] - The PPI is forecasted to improve from -2.6% to -0.4% in 2026, which will positively impact tax bases, especially for value-added tax and corporate income tax[8] Short-term Considerations - Key areas of focus include local government GDP targets, potential carryover funds, and the performance of the economy in the first quarter of 2026, particularly in real estate and infrastructure[8]