宏观和大类资产配置周报：国际资本市场波动性加大-20260201

Macro Economic Overview - The report indicates an increase in volatility in international capital markets, with a recommended asset allocation order of equities > commodities > bonds > currencies [1][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.08% this week, while the ten-year government bond yield decreased by 2 basis points to 1.81% [1][11] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests an overweight position in equities, emphasizing the importance of the implementation of "incremental" policies [2][3] - A cautious stance is recommended for bonds due to potential short-term impacts from the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, leading to an underweight allocation [2][3] - The report maintains a neutral position on commodities, highlighting the need to monitor fiscal spending in 2026 [2][3] Economic Data Insights - Industrial profits for December showed a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, reversing a previous decline [4][18] - The fiscal revenue for 2025 was reported at 21.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year, while fiscal expenditure increased by 1% [4][18] Market Performance - The report notes that the A-share market experienced mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index leading gains while the ChiNext Index saw a decline of 3.78% [36] - In the commodities market, coal futures rose by 2.75%, and iron ore futures increased by 0.13% [1][11] Policy Developments - The report highlights the publication of a significant article by President Xi Jinping on the importance of building a strong financial nation, emphasizing the need for a robust economic foundation and effective financial institutions [4][19] - The State Council issued a plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, outlining 12 policy measures targeting key sectors [4][20]