聚酯数据周报-20260201

Report Information - Report Title: Polyester Data Weekly Report [1] - Author: He Xiaoqin (Senior Analyst), Qian Jiayin (Contact) from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Date: February 1, 2026 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Views - In the first half of 2026, PX is expected to be the strongest variety in the polyester industry chain [15] - Before the Spring Festival, the high - level volatility of PX increases, with limited downside space and a reverse spread of monthly differences. The PTA unilateral trend is strong before the holiday, with a 5 - 9 monthly difference reverse spread. MEG has a clear lower - level support, with limited upside rebound space [3][4][5] Summary by Directory PX Valuation and Profit - PX monthly spread weakens, with PX internal and external markets generally rising first and then falling, and PXN回调. The gasoline inventory continues to rise, the aromatics blending oil demand is weak, and the aromatics blending oil economy weakens [22][23][28] - The PX - MX spread reached a high of 170 US dollars/ton during the week, and the Asian MX blending oil economy decreased significantly. The toluene disproportionation unit profit improved significantly [41][50] Supply and Demand, and Inventory - Domestic production: The domestic production start - up rate is at a historical high. The 800,000 - ton PX unit of Sinochem Quanzhou restarted, and the domestic unit start - up rate rose to 89.2%. The December PX domestic production was 3.46 million tons [56][61] - Import: In December, the import volume was 930,000 tons. The Asian PX unit start - up rate this week was 81.2% (+0.2%). In November, PX imports from South Korea and Japan continued to increase, while those from Brunei decreased [63] - Inventory: In December, the Longzhong PX inventory was 4.45 million tons (+6) [89] PTA Valuation and Profit - The basis and monthly spread are weak. The PTA price has risen sharply, the basis has increased slightly, and the 5 - 9 monthly spread is weak due to increased supply pressure [96][97][101] - The PTA processing fee has been significantly repaired. The PTA spot processing fee has rebounded to 398 yuan/ton, and the polyester link profit is compressed by the upstream [105][106] Supply and Demand, and Inventory - Supply: The start - up rate remains at 76.6% without significant change. The 1 - million - ton unit of Sichuan Energy Investment recently restarted, the 2.5 - million - ton unit of Dushan Energy Phase II is expected to be overhauled at the end of January, and the 1.25 - million - ton unit of Zhuhai Ineos is shut down for maintenance [108] - Demand: The terminal orders of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving show differentiation. Export orders are good, but some re - flow orders have not increased significantly. Enterprises are cautious about pre - holiday stockpiling, and most enterprises have taken holidays [4] - Inventory: The total inventory is at a low level, and the inventory accumulation intensity will be relatively large in February [128] MEG Valuation and Profit - The unilateral price is in a volatile market. The relative valuation continues to decline, and Satellite Petrochemical will switch to produce plastics in February [148][154] - The profit of coal - based units is - 110 yuan/ton (+20). Oil - based units continue to be in a loss pattern, with the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol at - 1217 yuan/ton (-160), the profit of externally purchased ethylene - based ethylene glycol at - 187 yuan/ton (+30), the MTO profit at - 1601 (+20), and the profit of ethane cracking - based ethylene glycol at 366 (+15) [157] Supply and Demand, and Inventory - Supply: The start - up rate of units has risen to 74.4% (+1.3%). The 500,000 - ton unit of Sinochem Quanzhou and the 500,000 - ton unit of Ningbo Fude have restarted. From January to February, the ethylene glycol import volume will remain at a high level, with a monthly average of over 700,000 tons [166] - Inventory: Attention should be paid to the changes in units in Saudi Arabia and Taiwan. The port inventory data in East China is provided [170][176] Polyester Segment Start - up - The polyester start - up rate is 84.2% (-1.5%). Multiple sets of units have been overhauled, restarted, and some unit loads have been adjusted. The comprehensive polyester load has decreased. It is expected to be 88% in January, 80.5% in February, and 91% in March [182][185] Inventory - The inventory has increased slightly, but the pressure is not great [190][192] Export - From January to December, the total polyester export volume was 14.61 million tons, +13.5%. The total export volume of polyester filament was 4.29 million tons, +10.6%; the total export volume of polyester bottle chips was 6.46 million tons, +10.1%; the total export volume of polyester chips was 1.34 million tons, +21%; the total export volume of polyester staple fiber was 1.7 million tons, +28.2%; the total export volume of polyester film was 0.82 million tons, +15.5% [193] Profit - The losses of filament factories have expanded, while the profits of staple fiber and bottle chips are acceptable [195] Terminal: Weaving, Textile and Apparel Start - up - The start - up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 34% (-15%), and the start - up rate of texturing machines is 53% (-13%). Downstream texturing and weaving enterprises have entered the Spring Festival holiday season [217][219] Orders - Downstream orders are seasonally weak overall, but export orders are eye - catching, especially orders from the United States. Some enterprises reported that recent US clothing orders increased by 14% year - on - year, and Southeast Asian orders have also returned, but the overall order volume has not increased significantly [219] Inventory - The finished product inventory has decreased, and the grey fabric inventory has accumulated again. Weaving enterprises have stocked raw materials until the end of January [220][221] Retail and Export - China's textile and clothing retail: From January to December, it was 135.97 billion yuan, +3.5% [224] - China's textile and clothing export: From January to December, the cumulative export volume was 137.8 billion US dollars, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [230] - Overseas textile and clothing retail: The US and European clothing retail data have risen strongly. In October, US retail was 19.3 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year increase of 9.8%. In 2025 from January to October, US clothing retail was 180 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. In December, UK retail was 6.766 billion pounds, with a year - on - year increase of 5.8%. From January to December, UK retail was 50.6 billion pounds, with a year - on - year increase of 6.23% [234][238] - Overseas textile and clothing inventory: It has declined slightly month - on - month [240]