交通运输2026年投资策略：快递物流：掘金三大主线，把握分化与成长

Group 1: Industry Overview - In 2025, the express delivery volume growth slowed due to factors like e-commerce tax and "anti-involution" policies, with industry revenue per ticket initially declining before recovering[2] - The express delivery industry is expected to see a business volume growth rate of 8% in 2026, down from 14% in 2025[48] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Three main investment lines for 2026 are identified: overseas expansion, anti-involution, and cyclical recovery[2] - The overseas expansion line is driven by explosive growth in overseas e-commerce GMV, with Jitu Express expected to benefit significantly, achieving a 68% year-on-year growth in Southeast Asia in 2025[19] - The anti-involution line highlights the increasing market share and profitability of leading express companies, with recommendations to focus on Zhongtong Express, YTO Express, and Shentong Express[2] Group 3: Key Companies - Jitu Express is projected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with Southeast Asia revenue increasing by approximately 30% to $1.97 billion in the first half of 2025, and adjusted EBIT growing by 74%[19] - SF Express is expected to benefit from a mild domestic economic recovery, with its business structure adjustments showing positive results, and its valuation at historical lows[3] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The express delivery market is experiencing significant differentiation, with leading companies gaining market share and profitability amid a backdrop of regulatory changes aimed at curbing price wars[41] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with major players like Zhongtong and YTO expected to outperform in terms of growth and profitability due to their superior management capabilities and network resilience[48]