铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告-20260201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, aluminum prices fluctuated significantly. Mid - week, aluminum led the rise in the non - ferrous sector, but prices fell in the second half of the week due to the decline of the US stock market and concerns about the overseas AI bubble. The short - term micro - demand for aluminum is still weak, and the dominant factors for non - ferrous metals are capital preference and overseas macro narratives [3]. - Alumina follows the overall trend of the non - ferrous sector, with its price trend converging in a volatile manner. The pattern of oversupply, inventory build - up, and cost collapse remains unchanged, and the mid - term strategy is to short on rallies [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Aluminum - Price Movement: Mid - week, aluminum led the non - ferrous sector, with the absolute price breaking historical highs, likely due to stock - futures linkage and ETF market arbitrage. In the second half of the week, prices dropped with the decline of the US stock market and concerns about the overseas AI bubble. In the Friday night session, the decline was relatively moderate [3]. - Micro - demand: As of January 29, aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 32,000 tons to 800,000 tons compared with last week. As of January 30, the spot discount in East China and South China widened significantly. The weekly output of aluminum plates, strips, and foils continued to decline, and the cumulative year - to - date output in 2026 decreased by 0.15%. The operating rate of aluminum profiles also declined, and the processing fee of aluminum rods continued to fall to a record low [3]. 3.2 Alumina - Price and Inventory: Alumina prices fluctuated and converged. On Friday night, prices rose, possibly due to position - closing in other sectors and short - covering in the AO variety. As of January 30, the spot price showed a mild decline, and the inventory continued to build up. The ALD full - scale social inventory reached 5.114 million tons on January 29, an increase of 55,000 tons from the previous week [4]. - Supply and Cost: The weekly output of alumina decreased slightly. Some alumina enterprises in the north and south entered the maintenance period this week, and some enterprises planned to cut production in February to reduce supply pressure. Low - cost imported ore will arrive at ports in mid - to - late February, and some enterprises plan to adjust the ore application ratio to control costs [4]. 3.3 Trading - Price Difference: The spot premium of A00 aluminum and alumina weakened this week. The average spot premium of SMM A00 aluminum changed from - 150 yuan/ton to - 210 yuan/ton, and the average spot premium of Shandong alumina to the current month changed from - 153 yuan/ton to - 207 yuan/ton [7]. - Volume and Open Interest: The open interest of the main Shanghai aluminum contract decreased slightly, while the trading volume increased significantly. The open interest of the main alumina contract decreased slightly but remained at a high level, and the trading volume increased slightly [14]. - Open Interest - Inventory Ratio: The open interest - inventory ratio of the main Shanghai aluminum contract declined, and that of alumina decreased slightly and was at a historically low level [20]. 3.4 Inventory - Bauxite: As of January 30, the port inventory of imported bauxite decreased by 309,300 tons compared with last week. As of December, the port inventory and port inventory days of Chinese bauxite showed an increase. The bauxite inventory of alumina enterprises also increased in December. The port shipping volume of Guinea and Australia decreased slightly, while the sea - floating inventory increased slightly. The shipping volume from different ports showed a differentiated trend, and the arrival volume increased [25][30][31]. - Alumina: The total national inventory of alumina continued to build up, with an increase of 78,000 tons compared with last week. The factory inventory decreased, while the electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory, port inventory, and platform/in - transit inventory increased [47]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of January 29, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 32,000 tons to 800,000 tons, showing a build - up this week [54]. - Processed Products: The spot inventory and factory inventory of aluminum rods increased this week. As of December, the finished - product and raw - material inventory ratios of SMM aluminum profiles increased slightly, while the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum plates, strips, and foils decreased slightly, and the raw - material inventory ratio increased slightly [58][61]. 3.5 Production - Bauxite: In December, the domestic bauxite supply increased slightly. The SMM - caliber domestic bauxite output increased slightly. Imported bauxite was an important factor driving the growth of the total supply. The production of bauxite in different provinces showed a differentiated trend, with some increasing and some decreasing [66][67]. - Alumina: The capacity utilization rate of alumina remained stable. As of January 30, the national operating capacity of alumina was 94.1 million tons, a decrease of 400,000 tons from the previous week. The weekly output of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina was 1.83 million tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons from the previous week. The supply - side situation remained loose [72]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of December, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, but the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. As of January 29, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum was 858,900 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons from the previous week. The proportion of molten aluminum decreased seasonally [78]. - Downstream Processing: The production of recycled aluminum rods increased by 2,800 tons this week, the output of aluminum rods decreased by 15,800 tons, and the output of aluminum plates, strips, and foils decreased by 1,400 tons. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises decreased by 1.5%, and the operating rates of different sectors such as aluminum plates, strips, and foils also declined [84][85]. 3.6 Profit - Alumina: In December, the profit of alumina continued to decline slightly. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina in the Steel Union caliber was 135.4 yuan/ton. The profits of alumina in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan decreased slightly, while that in Guangxi was relatively better [92]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The profit of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, but the complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies increased uncertainties and interfered with market expectations [107]. - Downstream Processing: The processing fee of aluminum rods decreased by 50 yuan/ton this week, and the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [108]. 3.7 Consumption - Import and Export Profit and Loss: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai aluminum narrowed. In December 2025, the total export volume of aluminum products decreased slightly, by 30,000 tons compared with the previous month. The export profit and loss of aluminum processed products showed a differentiated trend [117][119][121]. - Absolute Consumption Volume: The transaction area of commercial housing was at a low level, and the monthly output of automobiles decreased compared with the previous month [122].