Huachuang Securities·2026-02-01 08:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for China National Aviation (601111) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to report a net loss attributable to shareholders of between -1.3 billion to -1.9 billion in 2025, compared to a loss of -237 million in 2024. The adjusted net loss is projected to be between -1.9 billion to -2.7 billion, compared to -2.54 billion in 2024 [1] - The anticipated net loss for Q4 2025 is between -3.17 billion to -3.77 billion, compared to -1.6 billion in Q4 2024. The adjusted net loss for Q4 2025 is expected to be between -3.54 billion to -4.34 billion, compared to -2.97 billion in Q4 2024 [1] - The net loss is attributed to the reversal of deferred tax assets, which increased tax expenses, although operational performance continues to improve, indicating a positive outlook for the industry supply-demand dynamics [1] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 166.7 billion, with a growth rate of 18.1%. For 2025, revenue is expected to reach 170.1 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 2.1% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be -237 million in 2024, -1.6 billion in 2025, and is expected to turn positive in 2026 with a profit of 6.08 billion [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be -0.01 in 2024, -0.09 in 2025, and is expected to improve to 0.35 in 2026 and 0.52 in 2027 [3] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be -611 in 2024, -90 in 2025, and then improve to 24 in 2026 and 16 in 2027 [3] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected at 3.2 for 2024, 3.3 for 2025, and is expected to decrease to 2.9 in 2026 and 2.5 in 2027 [3] Market Performance - The report indicates that the airline sector is expected to see continued improvement in operational metrics, with a 3.2% year-on-year increase in Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) and a 5.9% increase in Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) [7] - The passenger load factor reached 81.9%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong demand recovery [7] - The report highlights that the upcoming peak travel season is expected to drive further demand, with average ticket prices showing a positive trend [7]