棉花：维持震荡偏强走势20260201

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton maintains a structure where near - term contracts are weak and far - term contracts are strong, lacking fundamental upward drivers. The situation is similar to the same period last year [1][6][19]. - Domestic cotton futures show a moderately strong and volatile trend, mainly influenced by the overall sentiment in the commodity market. There is a lack of new fundamental drivers, with sufficient supply and weak downstream demand during the off - season. The expectation of a decline in Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2026 has been fully priced in for the time being. It is advisable to trade the target price subsidy policy for the next three years and the new - year's output after the Spring Festival in combination with demand [2][19]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Data | Futures | Opening Price | High | Low | Closing Price | Change | Change % | Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main - continuous | 63.84 | 64.40 | 62.55 | 63.11 | - 0.73 | - 1.14% | 176,844 | 74,242 | 177,986 | - 3,423 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main - continuous | 14,635 | 15,005 | 14,535 | 14,670 | - 25 | - 0.17% | 2,171,101 | 535,621 | 753,278 | - 50,057 | | Cotton Yarn Main - continuous | 20,515 | 21,230 | 20,385 | 20,495 | - 10 | - 0.05% | 56,765 | 3,127 | 5,889 | - 8,382 | [5] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 International Cotton Situation - ICE Cotton Structure: ICE cotton futures have been more volatile this week, maintaining a near - weak and far - strong structure. The 03 contract is under significant pressure, while the December contract is relatively stable [6]. - US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data: As of the week ending January 22, 2026, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 46,200 tons, a 51% decrease from the previous week and a 17% decrease from the four - week average. The weekly signing volume of 2026/27 US upland cotton was 3,400 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 58,300 tons, a 37% increase from the previous week and a 61% increase from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of US upland and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 1.7722 million tons, accounting for 68% of the annual predicted total export volume, and the cumulative export shipment volume was 852,200 tons, accounting for 48% of the total annual signed volume [7]. - Other Major Cotton - producing and Consuming Countries: - India: In November, cotton yarn and textile exports were good. The Cotton Corporation of India has purchased 4.37 million tons of seed cotton this quarter. The company has acquired about 1.53 million tons of lint cotton. In November, raw cotton imports reached 169,600 tons, a record high in recent months. Raw cotton exports were 27,500 tons, a 13% increase from October but a 4% decrease from November 2024. Cotton yarn exports in November were 91,000 tons, slightly higher than in October and 5% higher than the same period last year. Textile exports in November reached $1.73 billion, a 12% increase both month - on - month and year - on - year [8]. - Brazil: As of January 26, cotton planting was 55% complete in Mato Grosso. As of January 24, the national cotton planting progress was about 61%, 14% ahead of the same period last year. Farmers' sales progress is relatively slow, and transportation costs have increased. Traders have purchased about 76% of the estimated 2025 production and locked in about 43% of the 2026 crop in advance [9][10]. - Pakistan: Cotton import demand continues to improve. Although yarn prices and demand have improved, spinning mills still face operational pressure. The central bank maintained the benchmark interest rate at 10.5%. Weak US cotton futures have boosted import demand, but higher basis quotes from some shippers have restricted new order transactions [10]. - Bangladesh: There is a need to pay attention to the possibility of spinning mill shutdowns. Cotton import demand was moderate last week. Some spinning mills are cautious due to the approaching general election. Enterprises may suspend operations for about three days during the February 12 election, which may cause production disruptions and delivery delays. The Bangladesh Textile Mills Association has warned of a suspension of spinning production if the government does not cancel the duty - free bonded warehouse policy for imported yarn [11]. - Australia: The estimated cotton output for the new season is 4.4 million bales (about 1 million tons), an 18% decrease from the previous season. The output reduction is mainly due to a decrease in planting area and water supply shortages. The market is concerned about rainfall [12]. - Southeast Asian Textile Industry Startup Rates: As of the week ending January 30, the startup rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 69.5%, 67%, and 69% respectively, showing an upward trend [12]. 3.2.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton Price and Transaction: From January 30, domestic cotton futures and spot prices first rose and then fell. Spot trading was less active than last week, but some traders and textile mills still had good purchases. The sales basis of cotton spot continued to rise [13]. - Cotton Warehouse Receipts: As of January 30, there were 10,289 registered warehouse receipts and 1,084 pending warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton, totaling 11,373 receipts, equivalent to 477,666 tons [13]. - Spinning Mill and Weaving Mill Situation: The spot quotation of pure - cotton yarn was generally stable with a slight increase, but the actual trading atmosphere was weak. The number of downstream factories on holiday increased, leading to a continuous contraction in new orders. Spinning mills' comprehensive startup rate continued to decline, and inventories continued to decrease. The grey - cloth market weakened, and manufacturers focused on collecting payments. Most weaving mills were cautious about the post - holiday market [14][15]. 3.3 Basic Data Charts The report provides 14 charts, including cotton sales progress, commercial inventory, spinning mill and weaving mill inventories, startup rates, profits, spreads, import profits, basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [16][17][18]. 3.4 Operational Suggestions Maintain the judgment that Zhengzhou cotton futures will show a moderately strong and volatile trend. It is recommended to trade the target price subsidy policy for the next three years and the new - year's output after the Spring Festival in combination with demand [19].