宏观周报：Warsh提名美联储主席，金银巨震，美元回升

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Kevin Warsh has been nominated as the Federal Reserve Chairman, leading to market volatility and a rebound in the US dollar[1] - Warsh's focus is on supply-side reforms, influenced by Friedman’s monetary theories, aiming to reduce the Fed's market impact through balance sheet reduction[1] - Despite expectations for a strong dollar, Warsh is anticipated to respond to Trump's calls for interest rate cuts[1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - Domestic consumption shows stability, with metro passenger volume increasing by 1.3% year-on-year, but flight numbers and box office revenues are down by 1.4% and 13.5% respectively compared to last year[2] - The manufacturing PMI for January recorded a decline to 51.3%, indicating a pulse-like recovery influenced by the late Spring Festival and commodity price fluctuations[3] - CPI shows a mixed trend with vegetable prices dropping by 0.6% while egg prices rose by 3.2%[4] Group 3: External Economic Factors - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1,200.5, reflecting a 1.3% increase year-on-year, indicating rising external demand[2] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.5% while Brent crude rose by 1.8%, driven by geopolitical tensions[6] - The US economy is projected to grow at a rate of 2.1% in Q1, with durable goods orders rising by 0.5% month-on-month, surpassing expectations[9]