中美最新财报中的行业配置线索

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is expected to enter a strong seasonal rally phase following the release of annual report forecasts, with a high probability of small-cap stocks outperforming during this period [3][18]. - In 2025, the proportion of companies with low expectations and those forecasting losses or negative growth has reached new highs compared to previous years, indicating significant pressure on annual report forecasts [8][10]. - Historical data shows that the period from the Spring Festival to the Two Sessions is characterized by a strong seasonal effect, with small-cap indices showing a 100% probability of rising during this time [19]. Group 2 - The report outlines four reversal strategies based on the operational positions of various industries as of Q3 2025, focusing on identifying sectors that may validate recovery trends in Q4 [21]. - Reversal Strategy 1 highlights industries that have already shown profit inflection points in Q3 2025, particularly in AI and energy storage, with expectations for continued recovery in lithium battery materials and storage sectors [32][35]. - Reversal Strategy 2 focuses on the computer sector, which may see profit inflection points in Q4 2025 due to prior cost and personnel reductions, indicating a potential supply clearing and demand improvement [38]. - Reversal Strategy 3 examines industries under pressure but showing signs of demand-side improvement, particularly in the U.S. manufacturing export chain, which is expected to face challenges in Q4 due to currency appreciation and tariffs [45][48]. Group 3 - The report identifies high-growth sectors that remain undervalued, including overseas computing power, domestic computing power, and offshore wind energy, suggesting investment opportunities in these areas following the annual report forecast phase [52][55]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring U.S. earnings reports for insights into overseas demand trends, which could impact A-share valuations [59].