沃什提名美联储主席，美元短期走强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The market risk appetite is fluctuating, with most stock markets rising and most bond yields rebounding. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair has significant impacts on the market. His policy preference of rate - cuts plus balance - sheet reduction has suppressed market risk appetite, but in the long - term, it is positive for the US stocks. The short - term market is highly volatile, and asset prices are expected to oscillate in the next few months [1][2][10][11][32] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite is wavering. Most stock markets are up, and most bond yields are rising, with the US Treasury yield reaching 4.24%. The US dollar index drops 0.62% to 96.99, and most non - US currencies appreciate. Gold prices fall 1.9% to $4894 per ounce, the VIX index rises to 17.4, the spot commodity index closes up, and Brent crude oil rises 6.8% to $72.7 per barrel [1][5][9] 3.2 Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 3.2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rise, with the S&P 500 up 0.34% and the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.44%. The Fed's January interest - rate meeting keeps rates unchanged. Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair suppresses market risk appetite, but in the long - run, it is positive for US stocks. The US government's partial shutdown has little overall impact. The domestic stock market is more volatile, and it is expected to be weakly oscillating [10][11][13] 3.2.2 Bond Market - Most global bond yields slightly decline, while the US Treasury yield rises to 4.24%. Warsh's policy preference may steepen the US Treasury yield curve, but the government shutdown causes the yield to fall. After the shutdown ends, the yield is expected to rise. The weakening of the US dollar index eases the pressure on emerging - market bond markets. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury yield oscillates slightly down to 1.81%, and the bond market is expected to be slightly strong in the short - term [14][18][21] 3.2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index drops 0.62% to 96.99, and most non - US currencies appreciate. The offshore RMB falls 0.13%, while the euro, pound, yen, and Swiss franc rise, and some other currencies also have different performances [24][26] 3.2.4 Commodity Market - Gold falls 1.9% to $4894 per ounce, and there is still short - term downward space. Brent crude oil rises 6.8% to $72.7 per barrel. The commodity spot index closes up, but commodities are under short - term pressure [27][29] 3.3 Hot - spot Tracking - The nomination of Warsh as Fed Chair causes the US dollar to strengthen in the short - term. The market may have over - interpreted his impact on monetary policy. In practice, the main policy orientation is likely to be rate - cuts, and asset prices are expected to oscillate in the next few months [3][32] 3.4 Next Week's Important Event Reminder - Monday: US January ISM Manufacturing PMI - Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia interest - rate meeting decision; US December JOLTs job openings - Wednesday: US Treasury quarterly refunding announcement; US ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI - Thursday: Bank of England interest - rate meeting decision; ECB interest - rate meeting decision - Friday: US January non - farm payrolls report [33]