不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，镍铁预期托底下方：镍：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面与投机盘博弈

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The core game of nickel and stainless steel lies in Indonesia's nickel policies, with events such as quota adjustments, inclusion of associated minerals in pricing, fines for illegal land use, and suspension of mining operations affecting the market [1]. - For Shanghai nickel, there is a contradiction between high - inventory and marginal inventory accumulation, and an increase in supply elasticity after profit repair. The market has different expectations for Indonesia's nickel ore policies, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely due to the confrontation between hedging and speculative funds. It is recommended to consider options and pay attention to structural opportunities [3][4]. - For stainless steel, it is in a situation of weak supply and demand with off - season inventory accumulation. Cost logic supports the bottom of the price range, but the consumption side lacks upward drive. The price may fluctuate in the short term, and the breakthrough in direction depends on the dynamics of Indonesia's quota policies [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Indonesia's Nickel Policy Events - Quota Event: Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry may adjust the nickel ore quota to 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons. If the target quota is implemented, it may turn the oversupply expectation into a shortage and impact high inventories. There is a divergence in expectations between the secondary market and the industry [1]. - Associated Minerals Event: Indonesia wants to include associated minerals like cobalt in the pricing and taxation system, which may increase the ore - purchasing cost of the smelting end by about 5% - 10%. However, if the cost can be passed on, the impact on nickel cost will be limited [1]. - Conflict Event: Multiple companies in Indonesia are facing potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal land occupation. The fine negotiation process and monopoly issues in the IMIP port may increase market concerns about resource supply [2]. - Other Events: Vale suspended its nickel - mining business at the beginning of 2026 but later resumed normal operations. It is speculated that Indonesia may favor leading enterprises and wet - process projects [2]. Market Quotes - Shanghai Nickel: Overseas news is emerging one after another, and there is a game between hedging and speculative positions. The price is affected by factors such as high inventory, profit - driven supply increase, and differences in policy expectations. It is recommended to use options for trading and pay attention to structural opportunities [3][4]. - Stainless Steel: It faces pressure from off - season inventory accumulation and weak supply - demand fundamentals. Cost logic supports the price, but the consumption side is weak. The price may fluctuate in the short term, waiting for policy - driven breakthroughs [5]. Inventory Tracking - Refined Nickel: On January 30, China's social inventory increased by 6,622 tons to 69,238 tons, with an increase rate of 10.58%. LME nickel inventory increased by 2,556 tons to 286,284 tons [6]. - New Energy: On January 30, the inventory days of SMM's upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines of nickel sulfate were 5, 9, and 7 days respectively, with a month - on - month change of +0, +2, and +0 days. The precursor inventory increased by 0.1 days to 13.1 days, and the ternary material inventory increased by 0.1 days to 7.0 days [6]. - Nickel - Iron and Stainless Steel: On January 29, the SMM's full - industry chain inventory of nickel - iron decreased by 10% month - on - month to 121,000 metal tons. In December, the SMM's stainless - steel factory inventory was 1.48 million tons, with a year - on - month/ month - on - month change of +1%/ - 7%. On January 29, the social inventory of stainless steel was 952,674 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.37% [6]. Market News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses for certain products through the OSS platform [7]. - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have implemented export license management for some steel products since January 1, 2026 [7]. - Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, including treating cobalt as an independent commodity for royalty collection [7]. - Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [8]. - Multiple companies in Indonesia are facing potential fines for illegal land occupation, and the final fine amount may be lower than the initial estimate [8]. - Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Minister said that the 2026 nickel production quota will be adjusted according to industry demand, and the production may be around 250 - 260 million tons [8]. - The IMIP park in Indonesia is facing a monopoly investigation in port storage and logistics, but ship transportation is currently normal [8]. - A Singapore - flagged bulk carrier carrying about 50,000 tons of nickel ore sank on its way to Yangjiang, China [9]. - Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has started approving the 2026 mining work plans and budgets [9]. - Solvay Investment Group plans to restart its nickel - mining business in Guatemala in a few months [9]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and other indicators of Shanghai nickel, stainless steel, and related products, as well as price differentials and profit margins [11]. Graphs - The report includes a series of graphs showing the price trends, trading volumes, inventory changes, and cost - profit situations of nickel, stainless steel, and related products over different time periods [12][14][15][17][18][20][22][24].