C3产业链周度报告-20260201

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the investment rating of the industry. 2. Core Views - LPG: In the short term, geopolitical disturbances are strong, and the fundamental driving force is downward. In the short term, the market focuses on the geopolitical situation in Iran, with strong emotional support. In the medium to long term, as the supply reduction gradually returns and the demand - side PDH is in deep loss, the driving force is downward [3][4]. - Propylene: The upward driving force has weakened, and attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances. Next week, with the expected return of fluctuating PDH devices, the tight - balance pattern of propylene may improve, and its trend is more driven by the cost and supply sides [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory LPG Part - Price & Spread - The US dollar cost of LPG maintains a strong and volatile trend, and domestic civil prices rise steadily. The freight rate has increased, the spot premium has declined, and the US Gulf - Far East arbitrage window remains open [12]. - The lowest deliverable product is East China civil LPG [15]. - Supply - The total domestic LPG commodity volume is 543,000 tons (+1.9%), including 232,000 tons of civil gas (+1.6%) and 169,000 tons of ether - after carbon four (+2.9%). The propane import volume has decreased by 43,000 tons compared with the previous period [63][74]. - The total US LPG shipment volume is stable month - on - month, the Canadian shipment volume is stable, and the Middle East LPG shipment volume has increased month - on - month [42][45]. - Demand & Inventory - The PDH operating rate has further declined slightly, and the MTBE operating rate is flat month - on - month. The LPG refinery inventory is at a neutral level compared with the same period in 2025, and there is regional differentiation in the civil gas refinery inventory. The LPG terminal imported cargo inventory continues to decrease [81][83][93][107]. - Balance Sheet - In the first quarter, propane is expected to remain seasonally strong. In the second quarter, the supply will return to normal, and the tight supply - demand pattern is expected to ease [119]. Propylene Part - Price & Spread - Geopolitical risks have intensified, costs have increased, and propylene's own supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, rising and then stabilizing. The PDH profit has weakened after a brief recovery [122]. - International/US - dollar prices have increased month - on - month, and the import window remains closed. Domestic prices were strong at the beginning of the week and gradually stabilized in the middle of the week [126][132]. - Balance Sheet - The overall operating rate of propylene upstream is 70.5% (-0.9%). The oil - based operating rate has increased, while the PDH and MTO operating rates have declined. Downstream varieties have more load - reduction than load - increase [142]. - The supply and demand of propylene in the national and Shandong regions are analyzed in detail, including the production, import, export, and consumption of each month from 2025 to 2026 [146][163][166]. - Supply - The overall operating rate of propylene upstream is 70.5% (-0.9%). The refinery/main - operating rate has further increased to 80%, the ethylene cracking operating rate is 85.1% (+3.0%), the PDH capacity utilization rate is 60.7% (-1.5%), and the MTO capacity utilization rate is 80.9% (-3.4%) [173][184][194][199]. - Some PDH and MTO devices have undergone maintenance and restart operations [198][203]. - Demand - The PP capacity utilization rate is 74.8% (-1.3%), the PP powder capacity utilization rate is 32.1% (+1.3%), the PO capacity utilization rate is 73.3% (+0.3%), the acrylonitrile capacity utilization rate is 69.0% (-6.2%), the acrylic acid capacity utilization rate is 84.2% (+2.6%), the n - butanol capacity utilization rate is 86.1% (-1.4%), the octanol capacity utilization rate is 91.0% (-5.0%), the phenol - acetone capacity utilization rate is 88.0% (-0.5%), and the ECH capacity utilization rate is 54.3% (-3.7%) [215][234][246][259][264][277][282][287][297]. - Some devices in each downstream industry have undergone start - stop and load - adjustment operations [219][238][250][263][276][281][286][292]. - Downstream Inventory - PP production enterprise inventory, PP powder inventory, and other downstream inventories have changed to varying degrees [301][303][304].