金银周报-20260201

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is accelerating its decline, and silver is rapidly venting its emotions. Both gold and silver are in a weak position. The price range for gold is 1000 - 1100 yuan/gram, and for silver, it is 21000 - 25000 yuan/kilogram [3]. - The triggers for the historical plunge in precious metals are mainly the decline of US stocks, the extreme convergence of gold and silver trading, and the hawkish stance of the new Fed Chair Wash, which is essentially an extreme reaction at the trading level [3]. - In the short - term, gold and silver will first experience volatility reduction. It is advisable to consider option strategies mainly based on selling options. For silver, the internal - external price difference may converge, so an internal - external positive arbitrage strategy can be considered. For gold, the first support level is around 4600 US dollars, and the probability of breaking below is small. It may build an oscillating platform around 4800 US dollars and then oscillate upwards. For silver, the first support level is around 70 US dollars. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a new squeeze in March. If the spot situation is significantly alleviated in February, the main idea should be to short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) 3.1.1 Overseas Spot - Futures Price Difference - For gold, this week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 rebounded to - 27.466 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was - 27.9 US dollars/ounce [8][9]. - For silver, this week, the spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 rebounded to 0.009 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was 0.48 US dollars/ounce [8][15]. 3.1.2 Domestic Spot - Futures Price Difference - The domestic gold spot - futures price difference this week was 2.57 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [21]. - The domestic silver spot - futures price difference this week was - 411 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range [24]. 3.1.3 Inter - month Price Difference - The gold inter - month price difference this week was 8.64 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range [28]. - The silver inter - month price difference this week was 424 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [32]. 3.1.4 Cross - month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Cost - The total cost of the cross - month positive arbitrage of buying TD and selling Shanghai gold was 28.47 yuan/gram [34]. - The total cost of the cross - month positive arbitrage of buying Shanghai gold December contract and selling June contract was 8.18 yuan/gram [35]. - The total cost of the cross - month positive arbitrage of buying TD and selling Shanghai silver was 597.73 yuan/kilogram [36]. - The total cost of the cross - month positive arbitrage of buying Shanghai silver December contract and selling June contract was 591.89 yuan/kilogram [37]. 3.1.5 Deferred Fee Payment Direction of Gold and Silver Spot in Shanghai Gold Exchange - This week, the gold deferred fee in the gold exchange was mainly paid from long to short, indicating strong delivery power. The silver deferred fee was mainly paid from short to long, indicating strong receiving power [38]. 3.1.6 Gold and Silver Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.4 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rebounded to 53.3% [40]. - The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 327 tons to 12624 tons, and the registered warrant ratio fell to 25.8% [42]. - The gold futures inventory increased by 1.02 tons, and the silver futures inventory decreased by 126 tons to 455 tons [45]. 3.1.7 CFTC Non - commercial Positions of Gold and Silver - This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold decreased slightly, and the non - commercial net long position of silver decreased slightly [47]. 3.1.8 ETF Positions - This week, the gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 0.57 tons, and the domestic gold ETF increased by 20.8 tons [50]. - The silver SLV ETF inventory decreased by 566 tons [54]. 3.1.9 Gold - to - Silver Ratio - This week, the gold - to - silver ratio fell from 50.3 in the previous week to 47 [56]. 3.1.10 COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold and Silver Lease Rates - This week, the 3 - month gold lease rate was - 0.2%, and the 3 - month silver lease rate was 2.12% [58]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold 3.2.1 Gold and Real Interest Rates - This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [63]. 3.2.2 Inflation and Retail Sales Performance No specific summary content provided in the text. 3.2.3 Non - farm Employment Performance No specific summary content provided in the text. 3.2.4 Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions No specific summary content provided in the text. 3.2.5 Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index No specific summary content provided in the text. 3.2.6 Fed Rate - cut Probability No specific summary content provided in the text.