A股策略周报20260201：从货币反面到产业叙事-20260201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current high - volatility in the non - ferrous metals market is due to the reversal of the "loose dollar credit + loose liquidity expectation" narrative and profit - taking after prices reached historical highs. However, the non - ferrous metals market is not over, and there will be differentiation among varieties. Copper and aluminum with industrial demand are better than gold in the short term [3][4]. - The rise in raw material costs may accelerate the "survival of the fittest" in the manufacturing industry. China's manufacturing industry, represented by the chemical industry, may see an increase in share, and the market has not fully priced this trend [5]. - In the next stage, demand and competition pattern changes will be the focus of pricing. The revaluation logic of physical assets will shift from liquidity and dollar credit to low industrial inventory and stable demand. Different investment directions are recommended, including physical assets, manufacturing, consumer sectors, and non - bank finance [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 How to View the High Volatility of Non - Ferrous Metals? - Reasons for the non - ferrous metals market rally: The rally is driven by loose dollar credit, loose liquidity expectations, and new industrial demand narratives. Financial capital, previously under - allocated to physical assets, has rushed in [3][12]. - Reasons for the recent adjustment: The nomination of the Fed Chairman nominee has reversed the "loose dollar credit + loose liquidity expectation" narrative, and there has been profit - taking after prices reached historical highs. Trump's nomination of Warsh presents a blueprint for "restoring dollar credit," including Fed "balance - sheet reduction" to control inflation and subsequent interest rate cuts to support economic growth. To smooth market fluctuations, the US government needs to reshape the buying of US Treasuries, and the "petrodollar" cycle becomes more important [3][16]. - Market outlook: The current decline does not mean the end of the non - ferrous metals market. Copper and gold have a high winning rate in the 10, 20, and 60 trading days after a decline. Copper and aluminum with industrial demand are better than gold. Traditional industrial demand is less affected by price increases, and emerging industrial demand is still strong but with weakening expectations. The overall economy shows a "weak recovery" [4][30][33]. 3.2 Low - Volatility Alternatives: Manufacturing with Increasing Share - The increase in raw material costs accelerates the "survival of the fittest" in the manufacturing industry. China's manufacturing industry, especially the chemical industry, has expanded its share due to scale effects, technological progress, and energy cost advantages. The market has not fully priced this trend, as Chinese chemical companies have lower valuations compared to those in the US and India, while Japanese and South Korean chemical companies have shrinking shares [5][41]. 3.3 Demand and Competition Pattern Changes Will Be the Focus of Pricing in the Next Stage - The high volatility in the non - ferrous metals market does not mean the end of the physical asset market. The revaluation logic of physical assets will shift from liquidity and dollar credit to low industrial inventory and stable demand. The "petrodollar" system will be strengthened. - Recommended investment directions include: physical assets such as crude oil, oil transportation, copper, aluminum, tin, and lithium; manufacturing sectors like chemical industry (petrochemical, printing and dyeing, coal chemical, pesticides, polyurethane, titanium dioxide); consumer sectors such as duty - free, hotels, and food and beverage; and non - bank finance [6][46][47].