A股策略周报：在轮动中寻找确定性-20260201

Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the need to seek certainty amid market rotation, highlighting the volatility in precious metals due to geopolitical risks and monetary policy expectations, with significant price adjustments observed in gold and silver [2] - The A-share market is expected to maintain a stock market game structure in the short term, focusing on sectors with high performance verification and policy support certainty, such as technology growth, cyclical sectors benefiting from commodity price increases, and advanced manufacturing [2] Recent Dynamics - In December, industrial enterprises saw a profit increase of 5.3%, reversing a previous decline, indicating a recovery in the industrial sector [3] - The manufacturing PMI for January recorded a seasonal decline to 49.3%, reflecting insufficient effective demand in the market [5] Policy Tracking - The government has introduced a plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, proposing 12 policy measures to stimulate key sectors such as transportation, home services, and inbound consumption [6] - A series of cooperative agreements were reached during the UK Prime Minister's visit to China, aiming to strengthen the long-term strategic partnership and enhance economic ties [6] Market Performance - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 0.44%, while cyclical sectors like oil, coal, and non-ferrous metals led the gains [12][14] - The gold and jewelry index surged by 12.2%, indicating strong performance in specific sectors amid broader market volatility [15] Sector Analysis - The report identifies technology growth sectors (TMT/innovative pharmaceuticals), cyclical sectors (non-ferrous metals/chemicals), and advanced manufacturing (new energy/military industry) as key areas for investment focus [2] - The report notes that 10 out of 31 sectors achieved positive returns, with significant gains in oil and gas, coal, and non-ferrous metals [14]