Orient Securities·2026-02-01 09:44Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Positive" and the recommendation is maintained [5]. Core Viewpoints - The value of "call options" in the coal sector is gaining attention, with expectations that coal prices may rise beyond current market reactions due to overseas disturbances [3][8]. - The valuation of quality coal companies is expected to evolve towards a "debt-like" structure combined with "coal price call options," indicating potential for price increases [3][8]. - The coal sector has shown resilience, with the coal mining index rising 7.6% since the beginning of 2026, outperforming both the CSI 300 index and the ChiNext index [8][60]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Recommended stocks include China Shenhua (601088, Buy), China Coal Energy (601898, Buy), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225, Buy), and Jinneng Holding (601001, Buy) [3][63]. Industry Fundamentals - The coal inventory at ports has significantly decreased, with a reported drop to 24.66 million tons as of January 30, 2026, a decrease of 6.2% month-on-month and 6.8% year-on-year [8][36]. - The price of low-sulfur coking coal has increased to 1,630 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 12 RMB/ton and a year-on-year increase of 290 RMB/ton [8][22]. - The coal mining operating rate is at a median level for the same period, indicating stable supply conditions [27][28]. Price Trends - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port has shown a recovery, while the prices of imported coal from Australia and Indonesia have also increased [8][22][20]. - The overall energy prices, including oil and gas, have risen significantly, with European natural gas prices up 37% and Brent crude oil prices up 16% since the beginning of the year [8][22]. Market Performance - The coal sector has consistently outperformed the broader market indices, with the coal mining index showing a 7.6% increase compared to the 1.7% and 4.5% increases in the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices, respectively [8][60]. - The current price-to-book ratio (PB) for the coal industry is 1.52, indicating a historically low relative valuation compared to the broader market [8][60].