国泰君安期货能源化工尿素周度报告-20260201

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view on urea is a correction. The production volume of Chinese urea production enterprises increased this week, and it is expected to increase slightly next week. The increase in the next cycle is expected to be limited. [2] - Domestic demand: Mid - stream traders' enthusiasm for chasing high prices has weakened. Before the Spring Festival, mid - stream and compound fertilizer factories are expected to make rigid purchases, not chasing high prices but buying on dips. Exports currently have a small impact on the urea market. [2] - Overall, spot transactions are neutral. Urea inventory is expected to enter a stage of oscillatory pattern, and the de - stocking speed will slow down. [2] - In the short term, due to weakening macro sentiment and small - scale urea reserve releases suppressing speculative signals, futures and spot prices are expected to correct. For the 05 contract, the fundamental pressure level is around 1,830 yuan/ton, and the support level is expected to be around 1,730 - 1,740 yuan/ton. [2] - Unilateral strategy: Weak in the short term and strong in the medium term. It is recommended to observe the spot trading volume and go long on dips. The upper pressure for the 05 contract is 1,830 - 1,850 yuan/ton, and the static support below is 1,730 - 1,740 yuan/ton. [2] - Inter - period strategy: The 5 - 9 spread is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to take a long position in the spread on dips in the medium term. [2] - Inter - variety strategy: None for now. [2] Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Valuation End: Price and Spread - Multiple charts show the trends of urea basis (including Zheng Yuan, Bo Da, Jin Kai, Dong Ping), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices from 2018 - 2026. [5][6][7][8][9][10][11][13][15][16][17][18][19] Domestic Supply Capacity - The expansion pattern of urea production capacity continued in 2025. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 3.92 million tons, and in 2025, it was 6.64 million tons. In 2026, the expected new production capacity is 6.51 million tons. [22] Production Enterprise Maintenance Plan - Many urea production enterprises had maintenance plans from 2025 to 2026, including routine maintenance and loss - based maintenance. [24] Output - The production profit is around the break - even point, and the daily output of urea remains at a high level. Charts show the trends of daily output, capacity utilization rate, coal - based and gas - based urea output from 2018 - 2026. [25][26] Cost - Raw material prices have stabilized, and the factory's cash - flow cost line has risen. Calculations of the full cost and cash - flow cost of fixed - bed factories in Shanxi are provided, along with charts showing the full cost trends of urea in different production processes from 2018 - 2026. [27][28][29][31] Profit - The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state. Charts show the cash - flow profit and production profit of different production processes from 2018 - 2026. [32][33][35][36][37] Net Import (Export) - During the reserve period, export policies have tightened. Data on monthly net imports (exports) from 2018 - 2025 are provided, along with charts showing export profits and export volumes. [38][39][40] Domestic Demand Agricultural Rigid Demand - Agricultural demand is seasonally strengthening. Different regions have different demand patterns for different crops at different times of the year. High - standard farmland construction has led to an incremental demand for urea from corn. [44][45][47] Industrial Rigid Demand - Compound Fertilizer: Charts show the trends of capacity utilization rate, production cost, production profit, and factory inventory of compound fertilizers from 2019 - 2026. [51][52][53][54] - Melamine: Charts show the trends of production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine from 2018 - 2026. [55][56][57] - Real Estate and Panels: The demand for panels from the real estate industry has limited support, but panel exports are resilient. Charts show the trends of export volumes of plywood, OSB, and real - estate construction and completion areas. [58][59][60][61] Inventory - As of January 28, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 944,900 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from last week, a 0.12% decrease. As of January 29, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 144,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period, a 7.46% increase. [2][65] International Urea - Charts show the trends of FOB prices of large - granular urea in China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, as well as the CFR price in Brazil from 2018 - 2026. [69][70][71][72]