纸浆周度报告-20260201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. The current core contradiction in the market remains clear, with the supply - demand fundamentals maintaining a state of light and rigid demand. The port inventory pressure on the supply side persists, while the demand side shows no improvement. Downstream paper mills' procurement remains weak, and the market lacks upward drivers [101]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of January 29, 2026, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 625,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 66,000 tons or 11.8%. The inventory at Qingdao Port was 1.39 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,000 tons or 1.6%. The inventory at Gaolan Port was 45,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,000 tons or 7.1%. The total inventory of the mainstream port samples in China was 2.169 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 101,000 tons or 4.9%, and the inventory has been increasing for four consecutive weeks [5][6]. - On January 28, the second - phase production line of Chenming's Zhanjiang Base resumed full - load production, with an annual production capacity of 190,000 tons, mainly producing high - quality cultural paper and specialty paper [6]. - Suzano announced price increases in February 2026, with a $10 increase in the Asian market and a $30 increase in the European and American markets to $1,280 [7]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - The basis of Silver Star on January 30, 2026, was 20 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 900.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 95.82%. The basis of Russian Needle was - 150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 581.82%. The price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 170 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 13.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 66.00% [15]. - The 03 - 05 month - spread on January 30, 2026, was - 22 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 31.25%. The 05 - 07 month - spread was - 36 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 50.00% [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish and between Russian Needle and Goldfish both decreased this week. On January 30, 2026, the price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was 720 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 57.65%. The price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 550 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 54.17% [24][26]. - The import profits of coniferous and broad - leaf pulp continued to decline this period. On January 30, 2026, the import profit of coniferous pulp (Silver Star) was - 350.27 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 20.61% and a year - on - year decrease of 543.32%. The import profit of broad - leaf pulp (Star) was - 125.43 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 36.09% and a year - on - year decrease of 182.56% [31]. - The price of coniferous pulp was weakly consolidating. On January 30, 2026, the prices of Silver Star, Kalip, and Northwood in Shandong were 5,320 yuan/ton, 5,500 yuan/ton, and 5,550 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 1.48%, 1.79%, and 1.77% and year - on - year decreases of 19.39%, 17.29%, and 17.16% [34]. - The price of broad - leaf pulp was weakening. On January 30, 2026, the prices of Goldfish, Star, and others in Shandong were around 4,600 yuan/ton, with month - on - month decreases of about 1.08% and year - on - year decreases of about 5 - 6% [36][38]. - On January 30, 2026, the price of Venus was 4,950 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.61%. The price of Kunhe was 3,800 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 7.04% [41]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip procurement price of paper mills in East China remained stable this week [43]. - The price of domestic broad - leaf pulp decreased this period, and the supply of chemimechanical pulp decreased. On January 29, 2026, the weekly production of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 132,000 tons, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 17.86%. The weekly production of chemimechanical pulp was 85,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.13% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.16% [47][49]. - In November 2025, the pulp port inventory in Europe continued to decline, and the global pulp shipping volume continued to decline. The port inventory in Europe was 1.389 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.80%. The global pulp shipping volume was 4.357 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.61% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.90% [51][53]. - In November 2025, the shipping volume of W20 coniferous pulp was at a low level, and the inventory was high; the inventory of broad - leaf pulp was at a high level, the shipping volume decreased, and the inventory days returned to a year - on - year high [55]. - In December 2025, the export volume of Chilean coniferous pulp to China increased significantly month - on - month. In November 2025, the export volume of coniferous pulp from Canada, Finland, and the United States to China decreased month - on - month [59][62]. - In November 2025, the export volume of broad - leaf pulp from Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile to China decreased month - on - month. In December 2025, the export volume of Brazilian broad - leaf pulp to China increased significantly month - on - month, and the export volume of Chilean and Uruguayan broad - leaf pulp to China also increased [66]. - In December 2025, China's pulp imports were polarized. The import volume of coniferous pulp increased by 7.27% month - on - month, the import volume of broad - leaf pulp decreased by 23.38% month - on - month, and the imports of unbleached and chemimechanical pulp increased significantly [68]. 3.3.3 Demand - The domestic double - offset paper market was narrowly sorted this period, with a dull trading atmosphere. The industry's profitability was under pressure, and paper mills were reluctant to lower prices. The social inventory of double - offset paper decreased month - on - month [72]. - The domestic coated paper market price was stable this period, with a weakening trading atmosphere. Factory production was under pressure due to high costs, and downstream demand was weak [76]. - The white cardboard market price was mainly stable this period. The cost pressure was relieved, and the profitability of paper mills improved. The production volume decreased month - on - month, and the demand was expected to be dull [80]. - The price of the household paper market remained stable this week, with little change in the overall trading activity. The terminal demand was difficult to improve significantly, and the support of raw pulp prices for household paper prices was weak [84]. - In December 2025, the retail sales of books, newspapers, magazines, Chinese and Western medicines, and tobacco and alcohol products increased significantly month - on - month, while the retail sales of cosmetics decreased significantly month - on - month. The retail sales of cultural and office supplies and cosmetics were at a high level year - on - year [90]. 3.3.4 Inventory - On January 30, 2026, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp was 142,400 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.25% and a year - on - year decrease of 58.58% [91]. - The port inventory was at a moderately high level within the year, and the inventory of mainstream ports in China continued to increase this period. On January 30, 2026, the inventory at Qingdao Port was 1.39 million tons, the inventory at Changshu Port was 625,000 tons, and the total inventory of the five ports was 2.169 million tons [98].