能源化工燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告-20260201

Report Overview - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report - Report Date: February 1, 2026 - Analyst: Liang Kefang - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0019111 [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - High-sulfur fuel oil's strong performance continues, and in the short term, prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. The number of global CDU maintenance has increased slightly. Although Middle Eastern exports continue to rise, they have not flowed into Singapore and Malaysia in the short term, and Singapore's imports have not significantly increased. Geopolitical conflicts in Iran remain uncertain, causing market concerns about unexpected supply disruptions. High-sulfur prices will remain high unless there is a significant increase in Singapore's imports [4]. - For low-sulfur fuel oil, despite the复产 of the Al Zour refinery and the gradual increase in Japanese exports, there are still some positive factors. Brazilian exports have declined due to refinery maintenance, and European refineries are expected to process more heavy components, limiting low-sulfur exports. In the short term, low-sulfur fuel oil prices have support and are unlikely to weaken significantly [4]. - Valuation: FU is expected to range from 2,850 to 2,950, and LU from 3,200 to 3,400 [4]. - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: Fuel oil prices are in a high-volatility environment, and there is potential for further price increases. 2) Inter-period: The contango structure of FU and LU has reversed to backwardation and may return to contango after geopolitical issues subside. 3) Inter-variety: The crack spreads of FU and LU have rebounded slightly, and the LU-FU spread will continue to narrow in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Supply - Refinery Operations: The report presents data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries, including overall, independent, and major refineries, from 2016 - 2025 [6]. - Global Refinery Maintenance: Data on the maintenance volumes of global hydrocracking, FCC, coking, and CDU units from 2018 - 2026 are provided, showing the trends and fluctuations in refinery maintenance [8][9][12]. - Domestic Refinery Production and Commodity Volume: Data on China's fuel oil production, low-sulfur fuel oil production, and domestic fuel oil commodity volume from 2018 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the production capacity and market supply of domestic refineries [14]. 3.2 Demand - Domestic and International Fuel Oil Demand Data: The report shows data on China's marine fuel oil consumption, Singapore's fuel oil sales, and China's fuel oil apparent consumption from 2018 - 2025, reflecting the demand situation in the fuel oil market [18]. 3.3 Inventory - Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory: Data on the spot inventory of fuel oil in Singapore, European ARA, Fujairah, and the United States from 2018 - 2026 are presented, showing the inventory levels and trends in different regions [21][22]. 3.4 Price and Spreads - Spot FOB Prices in Asia-Pacific: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore and Fujairah from 2018 - 2026 are presented, reflecting the price trends in the Asia-Pacific fuel oil market [27][29]. - Spot FOB Prices in Europe: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean from 2018 - 2026 are presented, showing the price trends in the European fuel oil market [31]. - Fuel Oil Spot Prices in the United States: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, the cargo price of high-sulfur fuel oil in New York Harbor, and the price of low-sulfur straight-run fuel oil in USAC from 2018 - 2026 are presented, reflecting the price trends in the US fuel oil market [32]. - Paper and Derivative Prices: Data on the prices of high-sulfur and low-sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore from 2024 - 2026, as well as the prices of FU and LU futures contracts from 2021 - 2026, are presented, showing the price trends in the paper and derivative markets [33][36][39]. - Fuel Oil Spot Spreads: Data on the high-low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore from 2019 - 2026 are presented, reflecting the spread relationships in the fuel oil spot market [41][43]. - Global Fuel Oil Crack Spreads: Data on the crack spreads of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2026 are presented, showing the crack spread relationships in the global fuel oil market [44]. - Global Fuel Oil Paper Month Spreads: Data on the month spreads of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2022 - 2026 are presented, reflecting the month spread relationships in the global fuel oil paper market [47]. 3.5 Imports and Exports - Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on China's fuel oil import and export volumes from 2018 - 2025 are presented, showing the domestic fuel oil import and export situation [51][52]. - Global High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the weekly changes in global high-sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions from 2018 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the global high-sulfur fuel oil import and export situation [54][56]. - Global Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the weekly changes in global low-sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions from 2018 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the global low-sulfur fuel oil import and export situation [59][60]. 3.6 Futures Market Indicators and Spreads - Review and Logic: The report reviews the significant increase in Asia-Pacific fuel oil prices during the week, with the Zhoushan market moving in tandem. In terms of spreads, the narrowing of the high-sulfur domestic and foreign spot price spreads and the widening of the LU domestic and foreign price spreads are analyzed [64]. - Spot Market Spreads: Data on the domestic and foreign spreads of 380 and 0.5% fuel oil spot prices from 2021 - 2026 are presented, showing the spread trends in the spot market [68][69]. - Futures Market Spreads: Data on the domestic and foreign spreads of FU and LU futures prices from 2021 - 2026 are presented, showing the spread trends in the futures market [71][73]. 3.7 FU and LU Positions, Volumes, and Warehouse Receipts - Positions and Volumes: Data on the trading volumes and positions of FU and LU futures contracts from 2020 - 2026 are presented, showing the trading activity and market participation in the fuel oil futures market [76][78][80]. - Warehouse Receipts: Data on the warehouse receipt quantities of FU and LU from 2020 - 2026 are presented, reflecting the inventory and delivery pressure in the fuel oil futures market [87][88].