多空因素交织，玉米区间运行，减产不及预期，生猪下修预期，蛋价涨淘汰减，鸡蛋压力后移

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In January 2026, the corn futures first rose and then declined, the live hog futures had small gains and large losses, and the egg futures were stronger in the near - term and weaker in the long - term. The spot prices of corn, live hogs, and eggs also showed different trends [7][8]. - For corn, the short - term spot may fluctuate weakly, the medium - term maintains a wide - range trading idea, and the long - term pricing logic is substitution + planting cost, focusing on policy guidance [16]. - For live hogs, the first quarter of 2026 may see the price first rise and then fall, the second quarter may see the supply form an inflection point, and the second half of the year is expected to strengthen but with limited upside [46][47][48]. - For eggs, the short - term price may weaken due to the end of pre - festival stocking, the medium - term may face a supply - demand imbalance after the Spring Festival, and the long - term price increase space may be limited by the continuous expansion of the breeding scale [72]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Previous Review - Spot Review: In January, the corn spot price fluctuated slightly stronger; the live hog price first rose and then declined; the egg price continued to rise supported by consumption [7]. - Futures Review: In January, the corn futures led the spot price and rose in shock; the live hog futures first rose and then fell, and the egg futures were stronger in the near - term and weaker in the long - term [8]. - Strategy Review: The previous strategies for corn, live hogs, and eggs were verified by the market [9]. 3.2 Corn Variety - Macro Logic: Internationally, the macro - drive is gradually weakening; domestically, it is mainly reflected in industrial policies [13]. - Industry Logic: It has entered the passive inventory - building cycle, focusing on policies such as reserve purchases, directional rice/imported corn auctions, and grain import policies [13]. - Supply - Demand Logic: The domestic corn supply - demand pattern in the 2025/26 period has turned to basic balance. In February 2026, the spot market may become lighter. Supply is affected by international and domestic factors, and demand is mainly from the breeding and deep - processing industries [14][15]. - Variety View: Short - term, the spot may fluctuate weakly; medium - term, maintain a wide - range trading idea; long - term, focus on policy orientation [16]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term, the market is weak, and the 2603 and 2605 contracts have support levels; medium - and long - term, maintain an interval trading idea [17]. 3.3 Live Hog Variety - Macro Logic: Pay attention to the interaction between China's CPI trend and hog prices, and focus on industrial policy orientation [43]. - Industry Logic: The breeding market structure may change under the guidance of capacity - reduction policies. The reduction of the sow inventory of leading group enterprises has basically been achieved, and the large - scale decline of the sow inventory in the next few months is unlikely [43]. - Supply - Demand Logic: Supply is affected by factors such as sow inventory, new - born piglets, production efficiency, and slaughter weight; demand is weak after the Spring Festival [44]. - Market View: The first quarter of 2026 may see the price first rise and then fall; the second quarter may see the supply form an inflection point; the second half of the year is expected to strengthen but with limited upside [46][47][48]. 3.4 Egg Variety - Macro Logic: Domestically, pay attention to raw material prices and CPI changes, and in the second half of the year, pay attention to the impact of meat and vegetable prices [69]. - Industry Logic: The market share of leading enterprises in the egg - laying hen breeding industry is relatively low. The industry is expected to transform from traditional decentralized breeding to intensive breeding, and the scale rate is expected to increase [70]. - Supply - Demand Logic: Egg prices are mainly driven by the supply side, and consumption is seasonally driven. The current capacity reduction is less than expected, and it is difficult to start a cycle - type market driven by over - culling [71]. - Variety View: Short - term, the price may weaken due to the end of pre - festival stocking; medium - term, the supply - demand imbalance may intensify after the Spring Festival; long - term, the price increase space may be limited by the continuous expansion of the breeding scale [72]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term, maintain a short - selling idea for near - term contracts; medium - and long - term, the capacity may be difficult to clear effectively in the first quarter, and breeding enterprises are recommended to lock in profits through far - term contracts [73].