2月固定收益月报：2026年较2021年有何异同？-20260201

Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report's industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Mid - term, long - term interest rates may be similar to the early 2021 period, oscillating at the peak, but there are still some constraints for a smooth short - term decline. In January, the 10Y Treasury yield initially reached 1.90% and then dropped to 1.81% at the end of the month, reaching the lower limit of the 1.8% - 1.9% oscillation range. Currently, the expectation of broad - based monetary policy is relatively insufficient, making it difficult to support the yield to break downward. In February, with the large - scale supply of local bonds, the 10Y Treasury yield may return to the central position of the oscillation range. Investment strategies suggest focusing on two structural opportunities: the allocation opportunities of 5Y policy - financial bonds and 3 - 5Y general - credit bonds due to the concentrated maturity of amortized - cost - method bond funds; and the opportunities for spread compression under the background of the central bank supporting reasonable and sufficient liquidity, such as the spread between 10Y China Development Bank bonds and 10Y Treasury bonds [1][24]. Summary by Directory 2 - Month Bond Market Outlook: Similarities and Differences between 2026 and 2021 - Fundamentals: In 2021, the credit cycle weakened and the real - estate market peaked and declined. In 2026, the credit cycle may decline moderately, and the real - estate market may still be at the bottom - grinding stage. In 2021, factors such as the "Three Red Lines" and "Two Concentration Limits on Mortgage Loans" in the real - estate industry and repeated outbreaks of the epidemic led to a contraction in real - estate financing, causing a rapid decline in the credit and real - estate cycles. In 2026, the real - estate market is still at the bottom - grinding stage during the transformation of old and new driving forces, and the credit cycle may decline relatively moderately with the support of monetary and fiscal policies [1][8]. - Fiscal Policy and Local Bond Supply: After the withdrawal of extraordinary policies, the broad - based deficit ratio may decline marginally. Compared with 2021, the current local bond supply is front - loaded and has a longer term. In 2021, fiscal efforts were back - loaded and the term was shortened, while in 2026, fiscal policy continues to be "actively front - loaded" with a relatively long - term [12]. - Monetary Policy and Capital Market: In both 2021 and 2026, the expectation of broad - based monetary aggregate policies declined. However, in early 2026, liquidity was relatively abundant, while in early 2021, the capital market was tight. In 2021, there was no interest - rate cut throughout the year, and the policy intensity weakened significantly compared with 2020. In early 2026, there was a 25BP structural interest - rate cut and an over - amount renewal of MLF to provide liquidity support [18]. - Equity Market and Institutional Behavior: Against the backdrop of a booming equity market, funds flowed into the stock market. Compared with 2021 when insurance and funds had a greater demand for bonds, in 2026, factors such as the entry of insurance funds into the market and the lack of comparative advantages of pure bonds may limit the demand support for bonds [21]. January Bond Market Review Bond Market Trend Review - First Week: The 10Y Treasury interest rate rose 3bp to 1.88%. At the beginning of the year, affected by supply shocks and the A - share market's good start, the yield first rose and then fell, reaching a peak and then declining. Later in the week, as negative factors were initially released, market sentiment improved marginally, and the ultra - long - term bonds returned to around 2.3% [26]. - Second Week: The 10Y Treasury interest rate dropped 4bp to 1.84%. In the second week, under the combined effect of equity market adjustments, policy games, and capital - market fluctuations, the bond market oscillated and recovered with increased volatility. After the central bank's over - amount renewal of repurchase agreements and the implementation of structural tool interest - rate cuts, the capital - market tension gradually eased. The adjustment policy of the exchange margin ratio for margin trading triggered risk - aversion trading in the equity market, and the bond market started a smooth upward trend [29]. - Third Week: The 10Y Treasury interest rate dropped 1bp to 1.83%. In the third week, with the central bank's support, the capital - market pressure was relatively controllable. As the equity market's upward trend slowed down, the bond market recovered. With the cooling of the equity market and the fermentation of external risk - aversion signals, the bullish sentiment in the bond market was boosted, and ultra - long - term bonds had a strong performance. At the end of the week, the central bank's over - amount renewal of MLF and the mention of "there is still some room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts this year" by the governor increased the market's expectation of an MLF interest - rate cut, and the bullish force in the bond market was strong [29]. - Fourth Week: The 10Y Treasury interest rate dropped 2bp to 1.81%. Near the end of the month, with a quiet market news environment, the stock - bond seesaw effect was strengthened, and the short - and long - term bond varieties showed different trends. At the beginning of the week, with tight capital, the short - term yield weakened, and the ultra - long - term bonds performed strongly, flattening the yield curve. Later, as the central bank's capital support took effect, the cross - month capital market was moderately loose. The medium - and short - term bonds strengthened overall, while the ultra - long - term bonds weakened under the influence of profit - taking sentiment and supply concerns, making the yield curve steeper [30]. Capital Market - The central bank net - injected 967.8 billion yuan through four major tools. At the beginning of the month, due to a large supply of bonds, capital prices gradually increased. In the middle of the month, affected by the reserve - requirement payment day and the deferred repurchase agreement, the capital market tightened. On the evening of January 14, the central bank announced an over - amount renewal of 90 billion yuan in repurchase agreements, with a net injection of 30 billion yuan this month, and the capital market gradually loosened. At the end of the month, facing the tax - payment period, capital prices increased again, and the central bank net - injected 7 - day funds to support liquidity, but the amount was not large [31]. - In January, capital prices generally increased. The monthly average of R001 increased 5bp to 1.41%, and the monthly average of R007 decreased 2bp to 1.55%. The monthly average of DR001 increased 6bp to 1.34%, and the monthly average of DR007 increased 2bp to 1.51%. The 3M inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) issuance rate oscillated in the range and then increased at the end of the month. The FR007 - 1Y swap rate first rose and then fell, and recovered at the end of the month. The 3M national - share bank bill rate first rose, then fell, and then recovered. As of January 30, the 3M national - share bank bill rate was 1.45%, and the monthly average from January 4 to 30 increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year [33]. Secondary Market Trends - In January, yields first rose and then fell. Except for 3m, 3y, 20y, and 30y, the Treasury interest rates of other key tenors declined. Except for 5y - 3y, 7y - 5y, and 50y - 30y, the term spreads of other key tenors of Treasury bonds widened. As of January 30, the yields of 7y and 5y Treasury bonds decreased 6bp and 5bp respectively compared with December 31, reaching 1.68% and 1.58%, with relatively large declines. The term spreads of 30y - 10y and 3y - 1y widened 6bp compared with December 31, reaching 48bp and 10bp respectively, with relatively large widening amplitudes [42]. - In January 2026, the spread between new and old 10Y Treasury bonds first widened and then narrowed, the negative spread between new and old 10Y China Development Bank bonds narrowed, and the spread between the second - active and active 30Y Treasury bonds first rose and then fell [44]. Bond Market Sentiment - In January 2026, the inter - bank leverage ratio first rose and then fell, the spread between 30Y and 10Y Treasury bonds continued to widen, and the duration of bond funds first increased and then decreased within the month. The weekly average turnover rate of 30Y Treasury bonds in January 2026 increased slightly compared with December 2025. Compared with December 31, 2025, the spread between 50Y and 30Y Treasury bonds narrowed 2.9bp, and the spread between 30Y and 10Y Treasury bonds widened 5.8bp on January 30, 2026. The inter - bank leverage ratio rose to 108.2% at the beginning of January and fell to 107.4% at the end of the month, and the exchange leverage ratio continued to decline and fell to 123.0% at the end of the month. Compared with December 31, 2025, the median duration of the full - sample bond funds remained basically the same on January 30, 2026, and the median duration of interest - rate bond funds decreased by 0.04 years. The implied tax rate of 10Y China Development Bank bonds widened in January 2026 compared with December 2025 [50]. Bond Supply - In January 2026, the net financing amount of interest - rate bonds increased compared with December 2025 and January 2025. As of January 31, 2026, the net financing amount of interest - rate bonds in January 2026 was 133.12 billion yuan, an increase of 85.24 billion yuan compared with December 2025 and an increase of 29.77 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2025. The net financing amounts of Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - financial bonds all increased month - on - month [54]. - In January 2026, the issuance scale of Treasury bonds decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. From January 1 to January 31, 2026, a total of 13 Treasury bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 121.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 60.41 billion yuan compared with December 2025 and an increase of 19.85 billion yuan compared with January 2025, of which the proportion of those with a term of 1 year or less was 29%. On January 14, a new 30Y coupon - bearing Treasury bond 260002.IB was issued, with an issuance scale of 3.2 billion yuan and an issuance interest rate of 2.38%. On February 6, this 30Y coupon - bearing Treasury bond will be re - issued with 3.2 billion yuan [57]. - In January 2026, the issuance scale of local government bonds increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the issuance scale of local bonds will be large next week. From January 1 to January 31, 2026, 27 policy - financial bonds were issued, with an issuance scale of 69.28 billion yuan, an increase of 45.88 billion yuan compared with December 2025 and an increase of 12.58 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2025. 135 local government bonds were issued, with an issuance scale of 86.33 billion yuan, an increase of 57.96 billion yuan compared with December 2025 and an increase of 30.58 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2025. According to iFinD data as of January 31, 2026, it is planned to issue 57.97 billion yuan in local bonds from February 2 to February 6 [59]. - In January 2026, the net repayment amount of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) increased, and the monthly issuance interest rate decreased. The total issuance amount of inter - bank NCDs in January 2026 was 169.34 billion yuan, a decrease of 143.57 billion yuan compared with December 2025. The total repayment amount was 231.62 billion yuan, and the net repayment amount was 62.28 billion yuan, an increase of 4.52 billion yuan month - on - month. The average issuance interest rate of NCDs in January 2026 was 1.62%, a decrease of 2.4bp compared with December 2025 [60]. Economic Data - In January, the manufacturing PMI returned to the contraction range. On January 31, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China's manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, the previous value was 50.1%; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, the previous value was 50.2%; the comprehensive manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, the previous value was 50.7% [63]. - Since January, second - hand housing transactions have recovered, and industrial production has weakened marginally. In terms of real - estate, the monthly average of the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities turned negative month - on - month but the year - on - year decline narrowed. The monthly average of the transaction area of second - hand housing in 13 cities turned positive month - on - month and the year - on - year decline narrowed. The monthly average of the land transaction area in 100 cities turned negative month - on - month and the year - on - year decline widened. In terms of consumption, movie monthly consumption was weak both month - on - month and year - on - year, travel increased month - on - month, and subway passenger volume was stronger than the seasonal level. In terms of exports, the monthly port throughput increased year - on - year, and the freight rate index continued to decline year - on - year. Industrial production weakened marginally. The monthly average of daily coal consumption in power plants increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The monthly average of the PTA and semi - steel tire operating rates increased month - on - month, while the operating rates of other indicators decreased month - on - month [63][65]. - The high - frequency infrastructure and price data in January showed that inventory indicators increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the prices of crude oil and asphalt increased significantly. In terms of infrastructure high - frequency data, the monthly average of the mill operating rate decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, and the monthly average of the asphalt operating rate decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The monthly average of rebar inventory increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Among price indicators, the monthly average of cement and vegetable price indicators decreased month - on - month, while the monthly average of other price indicators increased month - on - month [66]. Overseas Bond Market - The Federal Reserve announced to keep interest rates unchanged. On January 28, the Federal Reserve ended its two - day monetary policy meeting and announced to keep the target range of the federal funds rate unchanged between 3.5% and 3.75%, which was in line with market expectations. The Federal Open Market Committee stated that existing indicators showed that the US economic activity was expanding steadily, but the uncertainty of the economic outlook remained high. Employment growth was persistently low, the unemployment rate showed some signs of stabilizing, and inflation remained at a relatively high level. Among the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee, 10 supported the monetary policy decision, and 2 members, Stephen Milan and Christopher Waller, voted against it, advocating a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut [71]. - The US PPI increase in December exceeded expectations. On January 30, data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the US PPI in December increased 3% year - on - year, with an expected increase of 2.8% and a previous value of 3%; it increased 0.5% month - on - month, with an expected increase of 0.2% and a previous value of 0.2%. The core PPI in December increased 3.3% year - on - year, with an expected increase of 2.9% and a previous value of 3%; it increased 0.7% month - on - month, with an expected increase of 0.2% and a previous value of 0% [71]. - Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. On January 30, US President Trump nominated former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, and this nomination needs to be approved by the Senate. Warsh joined the Federal Reserve in 2006 and was the youngest Federal Reserve governor at that time. In terms of monetary policy, he had a somewhat hawkish stance in the past and emphasized fiscal discipline and a more cautious attitude towards interest - rate cuts [72]. -