GF SECURITIES·2026-02-01 11:01Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the environmental protection industry [2] Core Insights - The environmental protection industry is entering a significant performance period, with expectations for intensified carbon reduction efforts [1] - The year 2026 marks the transition from energy consumption control to carbon emission control, with substantial progress anticipated in carbon reduction initiatives [5] - The report highlights the importance of companies focusing on performance and increased dividends, with 61 environmental companies expected to release their 2025 performance forecasts [5] Summary by Sections 2025 Performance Forecast - 61 environmental companies have released performance forecasts, with 14 companies expecting significant positive growth, 4 companies experiencing declines, 8 companies turning losses into profits, and 35 companies reporting losses [12] - Notable performers include: - Anhui Instrument Technology: Expected net profit of 42-62 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 191.52%-330.34% [12] - GaoNeng Environment: Expected net profit of 750-900 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 55.66%-86.79% [12] - Yuehai Investment: Expected net profit growth of 43%, reaching nearly 4.5 billion HKD [13] Biodiesel and UCO Market - The average export price of UCO is expected to reach 7,742 CNY/ton in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.6% [19] - UCO export volume remains high, with a total of 2.7558 million tons exported in 2025, despite a 17% decline in biodiesel exports [19] - The price of UCO has shown a consistent upward trend, with the latest price reaching 1,075 USD/ton, a 9.1% increase from early 2025 [29] Policy and Market Tracking - The report tracks significant developments in carbon reduction policies, including the establishment of a dual control system for carbon emissions and energy consumption [33] - The carbon trading market has seen a total transaction volume of 862,100 tons, with a closing price of 79.00 CNY/ton as of January 30, 2026 [36] - Recent policies emphasize energy efficiency and carbon reduction in public institutions, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" goals [38]