北交所策略周报（20260126-20260201）：\沃什交易\影响风偏，北证业绩预告密集发布-20260201

Group 1 - The report highlights the impact of the "Walsh trade" on market risk appetite, indicating a potential shift in global asset allocation and market style due to the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which has already affected market risk preferences [9][11]. - The North Exchange 50 Index experienced a decline of 3.59% this week, with notable sector rotations observed, where previously high-performing sectors like military and power equipment corrected, while previously lagging sectors such as oil and gas, real estate, food and beverage, and communications rebounded [5][8]. - Key performing sectors this week included space photovoltaic (Liancheng Numerical Control +21.73%), seed industry (Qiule Seed +22.55%, Kangnong Seed +13.5%), and optical communication (Hengdong Light +14.83%, Gebijia +19.72%) [5][8]. Group 2 - The report notes an acceleration in new stock issuances, with five new stocks launched in January 2026, and a total of 123 companies having released performance forecasts by January 30, 2026, indicating a need for expansion in the North Exchange due to its limited number of companies and small market capitalization [10][24]. - The median net profit forecast for companies in the North Exchange is over 80 million yuan, with several companies, including Fujida and Jilin Carbon Valley, expected to see over 30% year-on-year growth in Q4 2025 [10][11]. - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on sectors with clear industry trends and catalysts, such as AI, commercial aerospace, and optical communication, while monitoring the effects of the "Walsh trade" on interest rates and small-cap stocks [11][24]. Group 3 - The North Exchange's trading volume reached 5.961 billion shares this week, reflecting a 9.27% increase, while the trading value was 143.655 billion yuan, up 8.82% from the previous week [14][23]. - The report indicates that 43 stocks rose while 249 fell, resulting in a rise-to-fall ratio of 0.17, with notable gainers including Keli Co. and Qiule Seed [33][34]. - The report also details the performance of newly listed stocks, with Nongda Technology and Meidele experiencing significant first-day gains of 111.56% and 161.46%, respectively [24][27]. Group 4 - The report outlines the new three-board situation, with 14 new companies listed and 6 delisted, alongside a planned financing of 150 million yuan, which was completed at 161 million yuan [46][47]. - The report emphasizes the need for ongoing monitoring of the North Exchange's stock performance and the implications of new listings on market dynamics [10][24].