投资策略周报：政策保驾护航，中长线资金入市仍是大趋势-20260201

Market Review - The A-share market showed divergence this week, with the Dividend Index and Shanghai 50 leading in gains, while the North China 50, CSI 2000, and STAR 50 lagged behind. The average daily trading volume remained around 3 trillion yuan, indicating a high risk appetite among investors. The petroleum, telecommunications, and coal sectors led the gains, while defense, power equipment, and automotive sectors lagged. Low-position sectors like real estate and liquor also saw a strong rebound at one point. In the commodity market, precious metals prices plummeted, with silver and gold dropping by 26.42% and 9.25% respectively. The geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran drove international oil prices up, with WTI crude and ICE Brent rising by 7.65% and 7.32% respectively. The US dollar index exhibited a V-shaped trend, with the offshore yuan depreciating slightly against the dollar [1][2]. Market Outlook - The report emphasizes that policy support will continue to drive medium- to long-term capital inflows into the market. Despite signs of a temporary market adjustment amid increasing external disturbances, there remains ample space and opportunities for the current market trend from a mid-term perspective. The net outflow of stock ETFs has adjusted trading rhythms, but overall trading volume remains high, reflecting strong investor interest in high-growth sectors. The regulatory focus is on cultivating "patient capital" and increasing the participation of insurance and pension funds in the market, aiming to solidify the foundation for a slow bull market. The domestic demand showed marginal decline in January, but the recovery in price indices and sustained high growth in high-tech manufacturing create conditions for corporate profit recovery. With the narrowing decline in PPI, corporate profits are expected to enter a mild recovery phase in 2026 [2][4]. Economic Fundamentals - In January, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3%, and the non-manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.4%, both below the expansion threshold, indicating a marginal decline in domestic demand. However, improvements in prices and sustained high growth in new economic drivers were noted. The purchasing price index and the factory price index rose to 56.1% and 50.6% respectively, indicating overall price improvement in the manufacturing market, which is expected to narrow the PPI decline further. The high-tech manufacturing PMI remained above 52.0% for two consecutive months, reflecting sustained high growth in new economic drivers, while traditional sectors like consumer goods and high-energy industries showed marginal declines [3][4]. Capital Market Policies - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is committed to consolidating the positive momentum in the capital market and is intensifying efforts to cultivate patient capital and promote medium- to long-term capital inflows. On January 30, CSRC Chairman Wu Qing held a meeting to discuss enhancing the adaptability of regulatory frameworks, improving the quality and investment value of listed companies, and increasing the efficiency of refinancing. As of the end of 2025, various types of medium- to long-term capital held A-share circulating market value reached 23 trillion yuan, a 36% increase from the beginning of the year. Looking ahead to 2026, under the policy framework focused on stability, the regulatory authorities will continue to promote the increase in the scale of medium- to long-term capital entering the market [4][5]. Micro Liquidity - Since the beginning of the year, there has been a large-scale redemption of stock ETFs, with a cumulative net redemption of 792.2 billion yuan, primarily concentrated in broad-based ETFs like CSI 300 and Shanghai 50. Despite this, the A-share market remains active, with trading volumes around 3 trillion yuan. Financing funds saw a net inflow of 16.1 billion yuan this week, indicating strong support for high-growth sectors. Although the A-share market has shown signs of temporary adjustment, there is still ample space and opportunities compared to previous bull markets. The report suggests focusing on high-growth technology sectors such as AI, robotics, and energy storage, as well as cyclical commodities related to price increases [5][4].