宏观量化经济指数周报20260201：春节错位对经济数据读数造成扰动-20260201

Economic Indicators - As of February 1, 2026, the weekly ECI supply index is 50.09%, up 0.03 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is 49.86%, up 0.02 percentage points[10] - The monthly ECI supply index for January is 50.02%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points from December, while the demand index is 49.84%, down 0.01 percentage points[13] - The ELI index as of February 1, 2026, is -0.25%, an increase of 0.40 percentage points from last week[16] Industrial Production - The operating rate for automotive full steel tires is 62.44%, down 0.18 percentage points from last week, while the coke oven production rate is 70.73%, down 0.66 percentage points[22] - The high furnace operating rate is 79.02%, up 0.36 percentage points from last week, and up 1.02 percentage points year-on-year[21] Consumer Trends - The average daily sales of passenger cars for the week ending January 18, 2026, is 50,171 units, a decrease of 23,608 units year-on-year[28] - The ticket revenue for the week is 1,327.85 million yuan, down 2,739.53 million yuan from last week and down 66,911.91 million yuan year-on-year[29] Real Estate Market - The transaction area of new homes in 30 major cities is 143.17 million square meters, up 23.18% from last week, while the second-hand home transaction area is 245.33 million square meters, down 2.35%[34] Export Performance - The SCFI index is 1,316.75, down 141.11 points from last week, while the Baltic Dry Index is 1,989.00, up 248.00 points[40] - The export growth rate for South Korea in the first 20 days of January is 14.90%, an increase of 8.20 percentage points from December and up 20.00% year-on-year[39]