国泰君安期货能源化工纸浆周度报告-20260201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. The current core contradiction in the market remains clear, with the supply - demand fundamentals maintaining a state of light rigid demand. The port inventory pressure on the supply side persists, while the demand side shows no improvement. Downstream paper mills' procurement remains weak, and the market lacks upward drivers [100]. - It is predicted that the pulp market will operate within a range. Attention should be paid to the overall market trend, changes in the inventory of major ports, and the purchasing sentiment of the downstream paper market [100]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of January 29, 2026, the pulp inventories at Changshu Port, Qingdao Port, and Gaolan Port in China all increased, with the mainstream port sample inventory reaching 216.9 million tons, a 4.9% increase from the previous period, and the inventory has been increasing for four consecutive weeks [5][6]. - On January 28, the second - phase production line of Chenming Group's Zhanjiang Base resumed full - load production, with an annual capacity of 190,000 tons [6]. - Suzano announced a price increase of $10 per ton in the Asian market and $30 per ton in the European and American markets to $1,280 per ton in February 2026 [7]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On January 30, 2026, the basis of Silver Star was 20 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 900.00%; the basis of Russian Needle was - 150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.35%; the Silver Star - Russian Needle spread was 170 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 13.33% [15]. - On January 30, 2026, the 03 - 05 month - spread was - 22 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 31.25%; the 05 - 07 month - spread was - 36 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 50.00% [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The spreads between Silver Star - Goldfish and Russian Needle - Goldfish narrowed. On January 30, 2026, the Silver Star - Goldfish spread was 720 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.00%; the Russian Needle - Goldfish spread was 550 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.33% [24][26]. - The import profit of coniferous and broad - leaved pulp continued to decline. On January 30, 2026, the import profit of coniferous pulp (Silver Star) was - 350 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 20.61%; the import profit of broad - leaved pulp (Star) was - 125 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 36.09% [30][31]. - The price of imported coniferous pulp was weak and consolidating, and the price of imported broad - leaved pulp was weakening. The prices of natural color pulp and chemimechanical pulp also showed different degrees of change [33][35][40]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip purchase price of paper enterprises in East China remained stable this week [42]. - The price of domestic broad - leaved pulp decreased this period, and the supply of chemimechanical pulp decreased. On January 29, 2026, the weekly production of domestic chemimechanical pulp decreased by 5.13% month - on - month, and the weekly production of broad - leaved pulp remained unchanged [46][48]. - In November 2025, the European pulp port inventory and the global pulp outbound volume continued to decline [50]. - In November 2025, the W20 coniferous pulp shipment was at a low level with high inventory; the broad - leaved pulp inventory was at a high level, the shipment decreased, and the inventory days returned to the year - on - year high [54]. - In December 2025, the export volume of Chilean coniferous pulp to China increased significantly month - on - month; in November 2025, the export volume of coniferous pulp from four countries (Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States) to China decreased significantly month - on - month [58][61]. - In November 2025, the export volume of broad - leaved pulp from four countries (Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile) to China decreased month - on - month; in December 2025, the export volume of Brazilian broad - leaved pulp to China increased significantly month - on - month [65]. - In December 2025, China's pulp imports were differentiated. The coniferous pulp increased by 7.27% month - on - month, the broad - leaved pulp decreased by 23.38% month - on - month, and the natural color and chemimechanical pulp increased significantly month - on - month [67][69]. 3.3.3 Demand - The domestic double - offset paper market was narrowly sorted and the trading atmosphere was dull. The copper - plate paper market price was stable, but the trading atmosphere was weak. The white - cardboard market price was stable, with reduced production and light demand. The household paper market price was stable, with weak terminal demand and high inventory pressure [71][75][79][83]. - In December 2025, the retail sales of books, newspapers, magazines, Chinese and Western medicines, and tobacco and alcohol products, as well as the dairy product output increased significantly month - on - month, while the retail sales of cosmetics decreased significantly month - on - month. The retail sales of cultural office supplies and cosmetics were at a high level year - on - year [89]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of January 30, 2026, the total inventory of five ports (Qingdao, Changshu, Gaolan, Tianjin, and Rizhao) was 216.9 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.88% and a year - on - year increase of 23.38%. The inventory was at a moderately high level within the year and continued to accumulate [96][97]. - On January 30, 2026, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp was 14.24 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.25% and a year - on - year decrease of 58.58% [90].