宏观与大类资产周报：沃什当选与PPI提前转正，谁将成为下阶段市场主要矛盾-20260201

Domestic Economic Insights - "New quality productivity" and "anti-involution" have made substantial progress, with industrial enterprises expected to reverse three years of continuous losses by 2025, particularly in high-tech manufacturing, which significantly increased its profit contribution rate[1] - Starting from the beginning of the year, prices of bulk commodities, represented by non-ferrous metals, have surged, with January PPI expected to grow by 0.3% month-on-month, leading to a year-on-year recovery to -1.2%[1] International Economic Developments - The Federal Reserve did not further cut interest rates in its January meeting, with Powell appearing slightly hawkish, although he noted that inflation impacts from tariffs are likely to peak around mid-year, which could favor subsequent easing[1] - Trump's nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Fed Chair may have short-term bullish effects on U.S. stocks until Q3, but could turn bearish in Q4 and next year[1] Market Trends and Asset Performance - The appointment of Walsh is expected to influence U.S. stocks positively in the short term but may lead to bearish trends as the market begins to focus on the Fed's balance sheet reduction in Q4[1] - The difficulty of meeting carbon reduction targets during the 15th Five-Year Plan is anticipated to be the highest since the 12th Five-Year Plan, with sectors like construction materials, electricity, steel, and coal becoming areas of interest due to the combined effects of carbon peak and PPI turning positive[1] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank continued net liquidity injections, with a net injection of 580.5 billion yuan through 7-day reverse repos during the week of January 26 to January 30[4] - The average weekly rates for DR001 and DR007 increased slightly, indicating a tightening in liquidity conditions despite the central bank's efforts to maintain a stable funding environment[5] Government Debt and Financing - Local government bonds had a net financing of 310.85 billion yuan, while national bonds had a net financing of -113.34 billion yuan, resulting in a total net financing of 197.51 billion yuan for the week[6]