南华期货LPG产业周报：地缘仍是主要影响因素-20260201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradiction affecting the LPG price trend lies in the cost - end crude oil market's volatile nature, the firmness of the external propane market, and the weakening of the domestic fundamentals. Although the fundamentals are marginally weakening, the market is pricing in the supply disruption risk due to the escalating US - Iran situation. In the short term, the US - Iran situation may fluctuate, leading to increased market volatility. The direction is still considered for long - positions, while also being aware of the upside risks [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Cost - end crude oil: In the medium to long term, crude oil is affected by both the oversupply fundamentals and geopolitical factors. In the short term, with relatively stable fundamentals, geopolitics dominates. This week, the crude oil price generally increased. Continuous attention should be paid to OPEC policies and the development of the US - Iran situation [1]. - External propane: The external propane market is oscillating strongly, with FEI stronger than CP. The shipping volume in the Middle East remains low. The February CP monthly price for propane is $545/ton (+20), and for butane is $540/ton (+20). In the US, supply declined this week due to the cold wave, and inventory continued to decrease, but the absolute inventory level is still high. With the strengthening of the swap price, the premium has weakened [1]. - Domestic fundamentals: The supply this week continued to be low, with low arrival volumes and continuous decline in port inventory and refinery product volumes. The demand side weakened significantly, and the PDH operating rate dropped to 60% due to the maintenance of several plants [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Market positioning: The market is expected to be in a range - bound state, with the PG03 price range from 3,800 to 4,500 yuan/ton. - Basis strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach as the market fluctuates greatly due to geopolitical uncertainties. This week, the spot price was weak due to refinery sales, while the futures price oscillated upwards driven by overseas factors, causing the basis to shrink. Currently, the PG03 contract has priced in a large amount of geopolitical premium [15]. - Calendar spread strategy: Consider reverse arbitrage at high prices. The PG03 contract is the forced cancellation month, and with a relatively small short - term warehouse receipt volume, reverse arbitrage can be carried out at high prices [16]. - Hedging and arbitrage strategy: Narrow the internal - external price spread [16]. 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - LPG price range prediction: The predicted monthly price range for LPG is from 3,800 to 4,500 yuan/ton, with the current 20 - day rolling volatility at 21.97% and the 3 - year historical percentage of the current volatility at 36.22% [17]. - Hedging strategy: - Inventory management: For enterprises with excessive inventory worried about price drops, they can short PG futures according to their inventory levels to lock in profits and offset production costs. For example, short PG2603 with a hedging ratio of 25% at an entry range of 4,400 - 4,500 yuan/ton. They can also sell call options to collect premiums to reduce costs and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [17][19]. - Procurement management: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy PG futures at low prices on the futures market to lock in procurement costs. For instance, buy PG2603 with a hedging ratio of 25% at an entry range of 3,800 - 3,900 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options to collect premiums to reduce procurement costs and lock in the spot purchase price if the PG price falls [19]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: The US - Iran situation has continued to escalate. The US is considering military strikes against Iran, and Iran has announced plans to hold live - fire naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday and Monday [19]. - Negative information: PDH maintenance increased this week. Several plants such as Jinneng (900,000 tons), Wanhua (900,000 tons), Juzhengyuan (600,000 tons), and Zhongjing (1,000,000 tons) were under maintenance, causing a significant decline in the operating rate [20]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - On February 6, the US January employment data will be released. - Pay attention to the risk of the US government shutting down again. - Monitor the development of the US - Iran situation [25]. 3.3 Market Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Domestic market: - Unilateral trend and capital flow: This week, the PG03 contract generally oscillated upwards. The net positions of the main profitable seats decreased; the top five long positions in the dragon - tiger list increased significantly, while the top five short positions showed no significant change; the net short positions of the dominant seats decreased slightly; the net long positions of foreign capital and retail investors decreased slightly. - Technical analysis: The PG03 contract found support at the daily - line middle - rail last week and continued to rise this week. It is currently near the previous high. Technically, it is still advisable to go long on dips [22]. - Basis and calendar spread structure: The LPG inter - month structure remained in a BACK structure this week, with the 3 - 4 calendar spread at - 294 yuan/ton [27]. - External market: - Unilateral trend: FEI M1 closed at $573/ton (+21.75), with a premium of $19.25/ton; CP M1 closed at $546/ton (+7.38), with a CP premium of - $15/ton; MB M1 closed at $336/ton (- 6.5). The FEI quotation remained active, and freight rates also increased, with prices rising this week. - Calendar spread structure: This week, the FEI M1 - M2 spread was $31.69/ton; the CP M1 - M2 spread was $9.37/ton; the MB M1 - M2 spread was - $11.50/ton. The near - month MB was weak due to the impact of the cold wave on exports and market wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage spreads, causing the calendar spread to weaken [41]. - Regional spread tracking: This week, the FEI - MB spread strengthened significantly. The FEI buying quotes remained active, and freight rates increased, while the MB was generally weak due to the wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage [43]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Upstream profit: The gross profit of major refineries this week was 660 yuan/ton (- 102), and the gross profit of Shandong local refineries was 166 yuan/ton (- 88). Refinery profits continued to shrink this week [46]. - Downstream profit: The PDH profit with FEI as the cost was - 228 yuan/ton, and the PDH profit with CP as the cost was - 353 yuan/ton, remaining in a loss state. The MTBE gas - separation profit was - 39.25 yuan/ton, the isomerization profit was - 3.67 yuan/ton, and the alkylated oil profit was - 206 yuan/ton. Profits fluctuated slightly [48]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking This week, the import profit weakened, especially the FEI import profit in South China, mainly affected by the strengthening of the FEI price [52]. 3.5 Supply, Demand, and Inventory 3.5.1 Overseas Supply and Demand - US supply and demand: - EIA weekly supply and demand: According to last week's data, production decreased slightly, demand changed little, exports increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline, but the overall inventory level remained high [56]. - KPLER export situation: In 2025, the US exported a total of 68,283 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 2.52%. Among them, exports to China were 10,187 kt, a year - on - year decrease of 43%. In January 2026, the US exported a total of 6,158 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 5.24%. Weekly shipments were not significantly affected by the cold wave [62]. - Middle East supply: In 2025, the Middle East exported a total of 48,463 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 2.43%. Among them, exports to India were 21,171 kt, a year - on - year decrease of 1.29%; exports to China were 17,905 kt, a year - on - year increase of 25.21%. In January 2026, the Middle East exported 4,043 kt of LPG, a year - on - year decrease of 0.41%. Weekly shipping volume in the Middle East has remained low in recent weeks [66]. - India supply and demand: From January to December, India's total LPG demand was 331,774 kt, a year - on - year increase of 6.67%. In 2025, LPG imports were 23,229 kt, a year - on - year increase of 8.12%. In January 2026, India imported 2,204 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 23.68% [69]. - South Korea supply and demand: South Korea's LPG demand shows little seasonality as most is used for the chemical industry. In 2025, South Korea imported a total of 8,434 kt of LPG, a year - on - year decrease of 2.56%. In January 2026, South Korea imported 762 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 13.32%. Since the fourth quarter, the cracking economy of LPG relative to naphtha has been poor [77]. - Japan supply and demand: Japan is highly dependent on LPG imports, and its demand and imports are highly seasonal due to a large proportion of combustion demand. In January 2026, Japan imported 1,004 kt of LPG, a year - on - year decrease of 4.78%, and its LPG inventory reached a new low compared to the same period [80]. 3.5.2 Domestic Supply and Demand - Domestic supply - demand balance: - Supply: With relatively high refinery profits, the domestic LPG production is expected to remain at a high level, but the overall external release volume is not high. Import volume is also expected to be low based on shipping data [83]. - Demand: Based on profit and seasonal factors, chemical demand is decreasing, while combustion demand is increasing. In the first quarter, chemical demand is expected to weaken marginally due to PDH maintenance [83]. - Inventory: The overall inventory is decreasing, mainly at the port [83]. - Domestic supply: The operating rate of major refineries is 80.02% (+1.24%); the operating rate of independent refineries is 53.60% (0%), and the utilization rate excluding large - scale refineries is 49.42% (0%). The domestic LPG external sales volume is 54.31 tons (+1.02), and the arrival volume is 49.5 tons (+0.9). In terms of inventory, the refinery storage capacity utilization rate is 24.60% (+0.24%), and the port inventory is 187.6 tons (- 12.08) [87]. - Domestic demand: - PDH demand: Several plants such as Jinneng, Wanhua, Zhongjing, and Juzhengyuan are under maintenance [97]. - MTBE demand: There were no plant changes this week, and the internal - external price spread was oscillating [100]. - Alkylated oil demand: This week, Jingmen Yuchu was under maintenance until the end of January, and Puyang Zhongwei started new maintenance [107]. - Combustion demand: No specific data or trends were mentioned other than relevant seasonal charts [109].