宏观周报：走好中国特色金融发展之路，建设金融强国-20260201

Economic Growth - In 2026, macro policies will focus on strengthening the domestic circulation and expanding domestic demand comprehensively[2] - The National Development and Reform Commission will optimize the support scope and subsidy standards of the "two new" policies[9] - A plan for increasing urban and rural residents' income will be developed[9] Infrastructure and Industry - The first batch of 936 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bonds has been allocated to support equipment upgrades, driving total investment exceeding 460 billion yuan[11] - Key policies will focus on emerging industries such as commercial aerospace and zero-carbon factories[11] Monetary Policy - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, with room for further cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates[13] - A mechanism will be established to provide liquidity to non-bank institutions under specific scenarios[13] Fiscal Policy - A package of fiscal and financial policies to promote domestic demand includes a 500 billion yuan special guarantee plan for private investment[14] - The central government will advance 141 billion yuan in assistance funds for vulnerable groups in 2026[15] Real Estate Policy - The minimum down payment ratio for commercial properties has been adjusted to no less than 30%[17] Consumption Policy - The government will implement a dual-driven approach of "policy + activities" to boost consumption, focusing on key service sectors[20] Financial Regulation - Recent adjustments in trading regulations by commodity exchanges aim to stabilize the commodity futures market amid significant price fluctuations[23] Trade Relations - There is an opportunity for a new round of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations before April, with both sides expressing willingness to manage differences and promote cooperation[28] Risk Warning - There is a risk of continued divergence in domestic and foreign monetary policies, with domestic policy execution potentially falling short of expectations[37]