国泰君安期货锡周报-20260201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is neutral, with a price range of 380,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, affected by macro - sentiment, tin prices may still have a certain downward risk due to the overall influence of the non - ferrous sector, and tin prices are generally highly elastic. However, the tight fundamental situation has not significantly reversed. If the sharp decline further expands the safety margin, tin prices may have a repair and rebound market. There are significant differences in short - term unilateral views, and it is recommended to use option tools for protection [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction, Position) 3.1.1 Spot - This week, the LME 0 - 3 discount is - 227 US dollars/ton, and the domestic spot premium is 0 yuan/ton. Overseas premiums remain flat [10][15] 3.1.2 Spread - This week, the tin inter - month structure maintains a C structure [19] 3.1.3 Inventory - This week, domestic social inventory increased by 165 tons, and futures inventory decreased by 58 tons. LME inventory increased, and the cancelled warrant ratio dropped to 3.74% [27][32] 3.1.4 Funds - As of this Friday, the funds precipitated in Shanghai tin are 391,560 million yuan, and the funds have flowed out in the past 10 days [36] 3.1.5 Transaction and Position - This week, the trading volume of Shanghai tin increased, and the position decreased. The trading volume and position of LME tin increased [39][45] 3.1.6 Position - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, the position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin declined [51] 3.2 Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) 3.2.1 Tin Ore - In October 2025, the output of tin concentrates was 5,972 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.48%. In December 2025, imports were 17,637 tons, a year - on - year increase of 119.37%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease was 14.55%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained at 14,000 yuan/ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan remained at 10,000 yuan/ton. The import profit - and - loss level rebounded [55][57] 3.2.2 Smelting - In January 2026, the domestic tin ingot output was 15,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.76%. This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 69.34%, a slight decline from last week [62][64] 3.2.3 Import - In December 2025, domestic tin ingot imports were 1,558 tons, exports were 2,763 tons, and the net export was 1,215 tons. Among them, the tin ingots imported from Indonesia to China were 636 tons. The latest import profit - and - loss was - 10,538 yuan/ton [74] 3.3 Tin Demand (Tin Materials, End - Users) 3.3.1 Consumption - In December 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 14,735 tons, and the actual consumption was 14,040 tons [82] 3.3.2 Tin Materials - This week, the downstream processing fee declined slightly. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises in December dropped to 72.7%. The output and sales of major tinplate enterprises in October increased slightly [84] 3.3.3 End - User Consumption - In December 2025, the output of end - user products performed well. The monthly output of integrated circuits, electronics, smartphones, and household appliances such as air conditioners all increased. The household appliance consumption rebounded month - on - month, while the automobile consumption declined month - on - month. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased [91][93][99]