铅产业周报：累库预期压制价格-20260201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The lead market is in a transition period from macro - preference driven to fundamental seasonal surplus, and the sign of inventory accumulation is the core factor dragging down prices [1] - In the short - term, the market lacks price - support power due to the approaching Spring Festival, with weak spot market, increased inventory, and strong risk of short - term price correction [5] - In the long - term, the lead market's long - term contradiction lies in the conflict between "shrinking traditional consumption" and "rigid supply supported by by - product profits", and the price center may slowly decline [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Macro - level risk - aversion trading has diluted the macro premium of the lead market, and the Fed's hawkish stance has led to a rebound in the US dollar, causing low - elasticity varieties like lead to correct first [1] - The domestic fundamentals show a "double - weak" pattern. As the Spring Festival approaches, lead concentrate trading is light, and the decline in supply is far less than the "cliff - like" decline in downstream demand [1] - The lead market is in a transition from macro - preference driven to fundamental seasonal surplus, and inventory accumulation is the core factor for price decline [1] 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Futures unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see or try short positions with a light position. The market liquidity dries up before the festival, and the fundamentals lack support, so it is not advisable to hold long positions during the festival [8] - Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money call options to collect premiums using the pre - festival decline in volatility and weak price upward momentum [8] - Arbitrage strategy: None [8] 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, short the main Shanghai lead futures contract with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 17,500 yuan/ton [10] - For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, long the main Shanghai lead futures contract with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 16,600 yuan/ton [10] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Likely positive drivers: Gold hitting a new high has raised the overall valuation of the non - ferrous sector; the opening of the silver import profit window has supported the ore price; the global visible inventory is still at a relatively low level historically, providing some price support [11] - Likely negative drivers: The national social inventory increased by 0.35 million tons to 3.84 million tons on January 29; the operating rate of lead - battery enterprises dropped significantly, and spot trading stagnated due to logistics shutdown; the Fed's hawkish signal strengthened the US dollar, suppressing the price elasticity of commodities [12] - Spot transaction information: The daily average price of SMM 1 lead was 16,775 yuan/ton, with no change; the weekly average price was 16,950 yuan/ton; the monthly average price was 17,027.17 yuan/ton. The price of domestic lead concentrate was 16,525 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of imported lead concentrate was 16,909.74 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.55%. The average price of recycled lead was 16,625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.3% [13] 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Domestic: On February 2, the Spring Festival travel rush enters its peak (logistics basically shuts down); on February 3, official manufacturing PMI data will be released (pay attention to demand expectations) [13] - International: On February 5, the number of initial jobless claims in the US will be released (pay attention to the fluctuation of the US dollar index); also, pay attention to the change in LME lead cancelled warrants [13] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Domestic market: The lead price closed at 16,865 yuan/ton this week. Currently, profitable positions are mainly short in net positions [15] - International market: As of 15:00 this Friday, LME lead was at 2,009.5 US dollars/ton [19] 3.3.2 Basis and Calendar Spread Structure - The LME lead maintains a C - structure [29] 3.3.3 Internal - External Price Difference Tracking - Information about the seasonal pattern of lead spot import profit and loss and the relationship between the Shanghai lead main contract closing price and the LME lead closing price is presented [33] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Information about the comparison of primary lead processing fees, the monthly output of SMM lead concentrate, and the domestic lead concentrate processing fees is provided [35] 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - Information about the import profit and loss of lead concentrate and its correlation with imports, the monthly import volume of Chinese lead concentrate, and the seasonal patterns of refined lead import, export, and lead - battery import and export is presented [37] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Information about the seasonal patterns of domestic lead ingot total supply and actual monthly consumption is provided [44] 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - Information about the monthly output of SMM lead concentrate, global lead ore production, electrolytic lead monthly output, recycled refined lead monthly output, and lead production capacity utilization rate is presented [46] 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - Information about the seasonal patterns of lead - battery operating rate, lead - battery monthly and weekly operating rates (by type and region), lead - battery export and import volumes, and lead - battery enterprise and dealer finished - product inventory days is provided [61]