1月PMI数据点评：制造业PMI超季节性回落，价格指数抬升

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI declined more than seasonally with supply - demand converging and enterprise - scale differentiation intensifying, while price indices rose. The service industry PMI slightly dropped and the construction industry's prosperity significantly declined, thus more efforts are needed to promote economic - stabilizing policies [1][10][34]. - In January, the shock of sentiment was gradually digested, and the bond market recovered after adjustment. However, there were still some constraints for a smooth short - term decline. The 10Y Treasury bond yield may return to the central part of the oscillation range in February. Two structural investment opportunities are recommended: the allocation opportunities of 5Y government - financial bonds and 3 - 5Y general - credit bonds, and the spread - compression opportunities such as 10Y CDB - 10Y Treasury bonds [4][34][35]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 1 - month PMI Data Overview - Manufacturing PMI declined by 0.8 percentage points to 49.3% in January, returning to the contraction range and being weaker than the seasonal average. The production index expansion slowed, demand was under pressure, price indices rose, and enterprises replenished inventory passively with a decline in purchasing willingness [10]. - In the non - manufacturing sector, the service industry PMI slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.5%, and the construction industry's business activity index dropped by 4.0 percentage points to 48.8%, both showing different degrees of deviation from seasonal performance [11][14]. 3.2 Manufacturing: Demand - side Operation Under Pressure, Both Price Indices Rising - Production: The manufacturing PMI production index was 50.6% in January, down 1.1 percentage points month - on - month, weaker than the seasonal level. The slowdown was due to factors like cold weather and approaching Spring Festival, especially the over 4 - percentage - point decline in the consumer goods manufacturing production index [17]. - Demand: The new order index and new export order index of manufacturing PMI decreased by 1.6 and 1.2 percentage points respectively. The "new order - new export order" index dropped to 1.4%. Seasonal factors and external policy changes affected demand, but the proportion of manufacturing enterprises reporting insufficient market demand decreased [19]. - Enterprise Scale and New Kinetic Energy: The PMI of large, medium, and small enterprises decreased by 0.5, 1.1, and 1.2 percentage points respectively. New kinetic energy industries continued to lead, while traditional industries' prosperity declined [20]. - Price: Affected by multiple factors, the main raw material purchase price index and ex - factory price index were 56.1% and 50.6% respectively, up 3.0 and 1.7 percentage points month - on - month. The index difference reached 5.5 percentage points, compressing the profit space of mid - and downstream enterprises [23]. - Inventory: The raw material inventory index decreased by 0.4 percentage points, and the finished - product inventory increased by 0.4 percentage points. The economic kinetic energy index decreased by 2.0 percentage points, and the purchasing volume index dropped to 48.7%. The start of the replenishment cycle depends on the recovery of market demand [24]. 3.3 Non - manufacturing: Slight Decline in Service Industry PMI, Significant Decline in Construction Industry - Service Industry: In January, the service industry PMI slightly declined. The strong support from the financial industry, the stable development of new kinetic energy, and the good performance of some consumption - related service industries maintained its stability. However, the real - estate industry's business activity index fell below 40.0%, and Spring Festival consumption may boost the consumption - related service industries [29]. - Construction Industry: Due to cold weather and the approaching Spring Festival, the construction industry's business activity index decreased by 4.0 percentage points to 48.8% in January. Both housing construction and civil engineering construction activities slowed down, and the off - season characteristics may continue in February [32]. 3.4 Impact on the Bond Market - In January, after the shock of sentiment was digested, the bond market recovered. The 10Y Treasury bond yield dropped to the lower limit of the 1.8% - 1.9% oscillation range. With insufficient broad - money expectations and increased local - bond supply in February, the 10Y Treasury bond yield may return to the central part of the oscillation range. Two parts of structural investment opportunities are recommended [4][34][35].