北交所策略专题报告：PVC行业景气度触底反弹，北交所相关标的有望受益

Group 1 - The PVC industry is showing signs of recovery after hitting a historical low in December 2025, with the PVC index reaching 4290 RMB/ton, the lowest in nearly a decade [1][15][20] - The industry has been under pressure due to demand contraction and overcapacity, leading to significant losses for production companies, indicating limited room for further price declines [1][20] - The overall PVC production capacity in China is expected to stabilize around 30 million tons, with no new installations anticipated in 2026 and significant uncertainty for projects planned from 2027 to 2030 [1][21][25] Group 2 - Jiexian Co., a high-tech enterprise, focuses on the research, production, and sales of new environmentally friendly PVC stabilizers and additives, with products widely used in various PVC applications [2][31] - The company is expected to report a net loss of 2.3 million to 1.8 million RMB for 2025, a significant decline from a profit of 11.74 million RMB in 2024, primarily due to weakened demand and increased competition [4][90] - Hanwei Technology specializes in the development and production of polymer material additives, with its products used in PVC as heat stabilizers, indicating a strong market presence in the industry [36] Group 3 - The chemical new materials sector on the North Exchange experienced a decline of 2.68% this week, with most sub-industries showing negative performance [3][42] - The overall market performance was weak, with only the professional technical services sector showing an increase, while other sectors like non-metal materials and rubber products saw significant declines [3][43] - Key stocks that performed well this week included Keli Co. (+33.99%), Gebijia (+19.72%), and Meibang Technology (+18.45%), indicating potential investment opportunities within the sector [3][44] Group 4 - The PVC price is currently at 4610 RMB/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 1.54% over the month, but a decrease of 7.43% year-on-year [49][50] - The PVC industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in prices and profitability as high-cost small producers exit the market, leading to improved supply-demand dynamics [1][28] - The export volume of PVC resin from China reached 4.46 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 43.6%, suggesting a growing market share globally as overseas capacities continue to exit [25][26]