南华期货甲醇产业周报：单边观望-20260201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent methanol market has been volatile. Geopolitical risks have not subsided, and the overall sentiment in the energy and chemical commodity sector has improved, leading to a strong rebound in methanol. However, from the perspective of methanol's fundamentals, there is significant negative feedback from downstream, with MTO plants shutting down one after another. The overall trading logic is expected to be strong first and then weak. It is recommended to wait for unilateral trading, and consider a 3 - 5 reverse spread + expanding MTO profit strategy [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The recent volatile methanol market is due to geopolitical risks and improved sentiment in the energy and chemical sector. After Trump announced a suspension of military strikes against Iran, methanol prices once fell below 2200. But with the U.S. Navy approaching the Middle East, concerns about methanol supply from Iran resurfaced. Subsequently, the improved outlook for the energy and chemical sector led to a rapid rise in the sector, with the aromatic series showing significant gains. However, from the perspective of methanol's fundamentals, downstream negative feedback is obvious, with MTO plants such as Xingxing and Yangmei shutting down, and others having shutdown or load - reduction expectations. In the inland region, due to the long - open port back - flow window, inventory reduction has been slow, and upstream producers face significant inventory - clearing pressure before the Spring Festival. Geopolitical risks have not subsided, and the macro - narrative logic continues, so methanol is unlikely to decline significantly in the near term [2] 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Base - spread Strategy: This week, the price of methanol 05 contract was 2250. After the price on the futures market rose and then fell, the 05 base - spread declined [13] - Calendar - spread Strategy: This week, with the expectation of MTO plant shutdowns, the 3 - 5 spread moved towards a reverse spread [14] - Trend Judgment: Methanol is expected to fluctuate upwards, with the short - term operating range of methanol 2605 being 2100 - 2350. It is recommended to implement a 3 - 5 reverse spread + expanding MTO profit strategy [15] 3.1.3 Methanol Inland Inventory Situation - The report provides various charts related to methanol inland inventory, including northwest methanol inventory (excluding MTO), northwest MTO inventory, southern line methanol plant inventory, northern line methanol plant inventory, national methanol plant inventory, national net methanol plant inventory (plant inventory - pre - sales), and methanol northwest pending shipments [21][25][30] 3.1.4 Methanol Port Inventory Situation - The report presents multiple charts about methanol port inventory, such as China's weekly methanol port inventory seasonality (from different data sources), provincial - level weekly methanol port inventory seasonality, methanol downstream inventory in the East China region (excluding Shandong), methanol coastal available inventory, weekly methanol arrivals in China, and methanol arrivals in different regions [36][52] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Price Range Forecast: The price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2% over three years [64] - Hedging Strategy Table: For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about falling methanol prices, it is recommended to short methanol futures to lock in profits and buy put options while selling call options to reduce costs. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low and there are concerns about rising prices, it is recommended to buy methanol futures to lock in procurement costs, sell put options to collect premiums, and lock in the purchase price if the price falls [64] - Positive News: Iran's opposition leader Reza Pahlavi called on workers in key oil, gas, and energy sectors to start a national - scale strike and hold large - scale demonstrations [65] - Negative News: Iran shipped 390,000 tons in January [66] 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Donald Trump expressed support for protesters and said the U.S. was ready to provide assistance. The U.S. government is discussing possible strikes against Iran, including air strikes on military targets, but no decision has been made [68] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - In the inland region, the current methanol operating rate is at an absolute high level, while winter is the traditional off - season for downstream demand. Coupled with high raw material inventories among downstream users and the parking plans of some port olefin plants, demand will further weaken, significantly suppressing market sentiment [69] - This week, the 1 - 5 calendar spread fluctuated, mainly due to the increase in Iranian shipments [75] 3.4 Price and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Price Tracking in the Industry Chain - The report tracks the prices of various products in the methanol industry chain, including coal prices at Ordos pithead and Qinhuangdao Port, methanol prices in the Lunan market and Taicang, and the number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of methanol [79][80][85] 3.4.2 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - It tracks the production costs and profits of methanol produced from different raw materials, such as coal - based production in Inner Mongolia, natural - gas - based production in Chongqing, and coke - oven - gas - based production in Hebei. It also tracks the profits of MTO plants and traditional downstream products [91][93][110] 3.4.3 Upstream and Downstream Production and Operation Rate Tracking in the Industry Chain - The report tracks the operating rates and production volumes of methanol production from different sources and downstream products, including the operating rates of major Chinese methanol enterprises, natural - gas - based methanol, and MTO plants, as well as the production volumes of coal - single - methanol, coal - combined - methanol, and coke - oven - gas - based methanol [95][99][105] 3.4.4 Import - Export Price and Profit Tracking - It tracks the import volumes of methanol from different countries, such as Malaysia and Venezuela, and the import profit of Iranian methanol. It also analyzes the price differences between domestic and foreign markets [128][130][131] 3.4.5 Overseas Operation Tracking - The report tracks the capacity utilization rate, production volume, and operating rates of methanol plants in foreign countries, including the overall overseas capacity utilization rate, production volume, and the operating rates of Iranian and non - Iranian plants [133][134] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction - The report provides a supply - demand balance sheet for methanol ports from January 2025 to May 2026, including data on supply (imports from Iran and non - Iran), demand (from various downstream sectors), and inventory changes [137]